On Saturday morning, people were panicked by a strong jolt of earthquakes. The quake, measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale, struck at 9:35am and lasted for 33 seconds.Its epicentre was located in the Comilla district, 86km from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) Seismic Centre in Agargaon.
However, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported a magnitude of 5.5. The quake originated at a depth of 10km, with the epicentre about 8km east-northeast of Ramganj in Lakshmipur.
With this, at least eleven earthquakes have been felt in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country since last February. Seven earthquakes have occurred on a scale of 4 to 6. Most of the tremors’ epicentres were within 60-400km of Dhaka.
As earthquakes are occurring frequently in recent times, the question now is: How prepared is Dhaka to deal with the earthquake risk?
Sign of a major earthquake
Experts suggest that these frequent earthquakes may be a sign of a major earthquake about to occur. If that happens, Dhaka will be the most affected.
Prof Mehdi Ahmed Ansari of civil engineering at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet) said: “More than 100 small earthquakes have occurred in the country this year, but they were so small in magnitude that we did not feel them. We typically feel earthquakes when they exceed 3 on the Richter scale. These are signs of an impending major earthquake.”
He explains that there have been more than 200-300 earthquakes before major earthquakes in other countries. “The same situation is occurring in Bangladesh. A major tremor may occur very soon, between levels 6-7,” he added.
‘Be prepared to deal’
Mentioning that the earthquake will occur from the northernmost zone of the country, he said: “It is feared that this earthquake will occur from the northernmost zone of Bangladesh, specifically Dinajpur-Comilla. Dhaka will suffer the most. We must be prepared to face this disaster.”
Mominul Islam, a meteorologist and earthquake expert at the BMD, urged people to be ready to deal with big earthquakes instead of panicking.
He said: “Bangladesh is geographically vulnerable to earthquakes. History also supports this. There have been major earthquakes in this region before. Since there is no opportunity to get a forecast before this disaster, we have to prepare by accepting the forecast of big earthquakes in the future.”
Calamity-resistant buildings
Experts say that a building can be quake-resistant if only 20% of the total cost can be spent on safety measures. However, many are not doing it to save money.
Prof Ansari said: “Although the government is strengthening fire service and other capacity-building measures, it still does not give much importance to building calamity-resistant buildings in Dhaka. Rajuk is responsible for supervising these. They must take steps to monitor those who are constructing buildings and give special importance to the construction of earthquake-resistant buildings when granting permission.
“At the same time, a publicity campaign should be carried out through advertisements in newspapers and on television. We have been emphasizing these things in government offices, but there has been no such effect.”
Prof Ansari believes that it will be difficult to deal with the situation if measures are not taken from now on.
According to 2009 data of a study by the Bangladesh Comprehensive Disaster Management Program, if an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 occurs 50km away from Dhaka city, approximately 270,604 buildings may be moderately damaged and 238,164 buildings will become irreparable.
NPDM plan ignored
The National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM) 2010-2015 was approved in 2010 and updated for 2016-2020. The plan focuses on risks related to urbanization and climate change.
According to the plan, Rajuk is responsible for conducting surveys and making lists of risk assessments of all buildings and structures in Dhaka.
However, even after 14 years, that list has not been created.
Meanwhile, a World Bank-funded project called Urban Resilience of Rajuk is ongoing to deal with earthquake risk.
Project Director Abdul Latif Helali told Dhaka Tribune: “So far, we have completed 3,052 monitoring of 20,000 government schools, colleges, and hospitals in Dhaka. Out of these, 42 institutions need to be demolished, and 187 need to be repaired.”
Earthquake research
Besides the Bangladesh National Building Code-2022 enforcement and management system, the Urban Resilience Project has developed software which can organize and fetch all the data of a building plan so that no one can manipulate it.
Helali also said: “A 10-storey building has been constructed in Mohakhali for earthquake research. A modern laboratory has been built there for advanced research. At the same time, we are going to set up an institute for research on earthquakes. Now, we are awaiting approval, hoping to get it by next March.”
He added: “We can prepare faster if we get support from the government and private sectors, but we are not getting any support in that way.”