If British Prime Minister David Cameron is to win a June 23 referendum on membership of the European Union, he will need the passion of the Scots, who turned out in droves two years ago to decide the fate of the UK. But this time around, they just aren’t that fired up.
In 2014, 85% of Scotland’s 4.3m voters cast ballots to decide whether to seek independence from Britain, the highest recorded turnout at any Scottish election since the advent of universal suffrage after World War I.
They rejected independence by 55%-45%, but unleashed passions that catapulted the pro-independence Scottish Nationalists (SNP) to a thunderous victory in a vote for British parliament a year later, winning 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats.
The upcoming referendum on whether Britain should stay in the EU is just as important for Scotland, not least because if Britain leaves the bloc some secessionists may seek independence again.
Scots, whose economy is focused on exports and who are proud of the welcome they give foreigners, are more supportive of the EU than the rest of Britain. An Ipsos Mori poll last month showed 62% of Scottish voters would support EU membership compared to 55% across Britain.
Scottish verve
The SNP has scolded Cameron for calling the June 23 referendum just six weeks after a vote for Scotland’s own parliament, saying voters will be exhausted and have too little time for debate. By the time of the EU referendum, Scots will have voted 5 times in four years.
But that is not the only reason why Scots are slow to engage fully in an EU debate whose most outspoken figures on both sides have been members of Cameron’s ruling Conservative Party. The Conservatives, or Tories, won less than 15% of the vote in Scotland at the general election last year and barely register in most communities north of the border.
The Conservatives, divided for decades over Europe, are now split between Cameron’s pro-EU wing and an “Out” camp led by London Mayor Boris Johnson. The two men are schoolmates from the same elite English boarding school, the sort of background many Scots view with disdain.
In 2014, the prime minister conceded his public image as a privileged Englishman with aristocratic roots did not make him the best salesman for the UK in Scotland, even imploring Scots to ignore their personal dislike for him.
This time Cameron has to call on his political foes, the nationalist SNP, for help to build pro-EU support. The popular Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has urged Cameron not to campaign north of the border to avoid putting off voters.
The SNP says Scottish voters must not be dragged out of the EU against their will. If Scotland votes to stay in but the rest of Britain votes to leave, the nationalists warn some could seek a new referendum on independence; many voted to stick with the UK because it gives them automatic EU membership.