While many European countries say asylum seekers could damage their economies if they let in too many, Germany is counting on the record numbers pouring across its borders to save its own.
Berlin estimates its working age population will shrink by 6m people by 2030 as the number of deaths outstrips births, making it hard to keep the economy growing.
“If we manage to quickly train those that come to us and to get them into work, then we will solve one of our biggest problems for the economic future of our country: the skills shortage,” Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel told parliament on Thursday.
Matching skills gaps with newcomers while keeping the population on side will be a challenge for the government, but many businesses have already woken up to the potential of the estimated 800,000 people expected this year.
Marcel Fratzscher, head of the DIW economic institute, said immigrants had filled more than two-thirds of the almost 1.5m new jobs created in Europe’s largest economy over the past five years.
“We need workers if we want to maintain Germany’s economic strength,” he said.
Boon or burden?
Located in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state that takes around a fifth of the new arrivals, Dortmund hosts around 4,000 refugees and expects the number to double by the end of the year.
The industrial city has suffered from a decline in coal mining and its unemployment rate, at 12.7%, is twice the national average.
A string of European leaders have cited high unemployment as a reason for refusing to take in even just a few thousand of the hundreds of thousands of people pouring into Europe to escape war and poverty in the Middle East and Africa.
But in Dortmund, the local Chamber of Trades (HWK) sees it differently, saying almost a quarter of businesses in the city have open positions.
To fill the gap, it invited some 85 refugees to take language and maths tests earlier this year, choosing 15 from Syria, Congo and Eritrea to train as opticians, electricians, mechanics, metal workers and parquet floor fitters.
But there are other barriers to the influx of refugees providing a quick answer to Germany’s demographic dilemma.
While many are highly-educated, particularly those from Syria, around 20% are illiterate, Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said, potentially increasing the burden on the state. Labour Minister Andrea Nahles said the number of recipients of benefits could rise by up to 460,000.
Skill shortages vary from region to region, making them hard to match with qualified newcomers. The Federal Employment Agency lists mechanical engineers, trades such as plumbers, heating and sanitary professionals as well as the IT and health sectors, especially care workers, as being in short supply.
To speed up access to the labour market, the government has reduced waiting times before asylum seekers can work and removed the requirement to seek approval from employment authorities before starting apprenticeships.
But there is no guarantee those who complete their training can stay, which critics say may put off potential employers.