Shock for Modi: BJP may miss majority

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Hindu nationalist party appears to fall short of a majority in the early vote count.

If these trends hold, it would be a stunning setback to the populist who has never relied on coalition partners to govern.

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Modi’s party is still expected to form the government and return as the prime minister for a rare third consecutive term as his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led in about 290 constituencies — ahead of the 272 seats needed for a majority.

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Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone led in 242 seats, compared with the 303 it won in 2019.

A coalition would, however, diminish Modi’s power as a strongman leader who won his party landslide victories in 2014 and 2019 elections.

In such a scenario, his BJP would likely “be heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, which makes them critical players who we can expect will extract their pound of flesh, both in terms of policymaking as well as government formation,” Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Associated Press.

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“This would be truly, you know, uncharted territory, both for Indians as well as for the prime minister,” Vaishnav said.

Since coming to power in 2014, Modi’s BJP has governed in a coalition government but has always held a majority on its own.

The seven-phase, seven-week poll that began on April 19 was held in searing summer heat with temperatures touching nearly 50° Celsius in some parts.

More than 66% of registered voters turned out, just one percentage point lower than the previous election in 2019, squashing pre-poll concerns that voters might shun a contest thought to be a foregone conclusion in Modi’s favour.

Modi, 73, who first swept to power in 2014 by promising growth and change, is seeking to be only the second prime minister after India’s independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru to win three straight terms.