To understand why things like the UK’s recent decision to Brexit and Donald Trump’s election win in the US are happening, it’s important to understand history and context. There are no new ideas, simply revolving historical circles and changing cultural contexts.
Benito Mussolini’s most profound statement was that “if the 19th century was the century of socialism, liberalism, democracy, this does not mean that the 20th century must also be so. Political doctrines pass; nations remain. We are free to believe that this is the century of authority, a century tending to the right, a fascist century.” This inspired his 1924 Italian fascist government.
A few years later, and not many miles away, Adolph Hitler took this concept to further extremes with his Nazi ideology, believing in the German master race and blaming all its woes on foreigners (Jews).
Very simply put, these forces collided with other powerful Western empires and an explosion was inevitable: The Second World War fought by people from all over the world.
Post the war, the victorious allied forces needed to forgive, heal, and unite. Organisations like the UN, NATO, and the European Common Market were created to enable international cooperation and encourage economic free trade.
The victor also celebrates, rewards, and advances. And that’s what the allied forces did as they engaged in national regeneration projects providing employment and economic advancement.
In fact, there was more work than workers, so the allies invited people from their empire who had helped in the war to immigrate to the west and enjoy in the post-war boom.
In the UK, that meant immigration started from commonwealth regions such as the Indian sub-continent and West Indies. This is a critical juncture in history as it is the birth of what we today call “globalisation.”
Let’s accelerate a few decades to the 1970s where I have a personal story. My parents were born in Bangladesh and were invited to live in London in 1970. In those days, my mother, who always wore a sari, was often stopped on London’s Regent Street by young women curious about what her marvellous garment was; my point being there were very few non-white native people living in London.
Immigrant reality is that you must succeed, as there is no safety net; you have no inheritance or family network to fall back on. To succeed, you must work harder and longer than the next guy.
Over time, our parents gained wealth and instilled those same values into the way we approached our education. And so, some of the second generation’s children found that we were cleverer, smarter, and harder working than our native school friends.
As the UK and US entered the 21st century with digital internet technology creating yet more capitalist opportunities, more people were needed, and fresh waves of immigration came from closer to home: Mexico to US and Eastern Europe to UK. These new immigrants are going through the same process that my parents did when they arrived 45 years ago.
As immigrants settled, they fought for legal and societal inclusion which was enabled by sympathetic and open-minded governments. Gently and over time, laws were adapted or created, as tolerance and equality for all were the values that defined citizenship.
Immigrants began to weave their own cultures into their host countries: On a recent trip to New York, I was amazed to note that Middle Eastern halal food trucks were on every third block in Manhattan, and had effectively replaced the traditional hot dog stand. It seemed like a wonderful global utopia. All very good for immigrants and the story of globalisation, inclusion, and diversity.
But I also felt alarm bells ring inside me. Because if you were a white native who could not compete against this wave of energy, you would deeply resent globalisation. I quickly understood the insight which politicians like Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have so ruthlessly exploited.
Bill Clinton and Tony Blair founded a class of left-wing politicians who can be summarised as the “Davos Neoliberals” - do-gooders whose egos also desired access to elite society, who enjoyed being feted by global stars, and who created their own global party scene of G20 soirees.
But every hour spent enjoying the sun was an hour less engaging with their native working-class who’d voted them into power.
They forgot a critical group of voters: The less able, less motivated or less hard-working white natives who suddenly found they had unprecedented competition for their jobs. Many felt entitled to reap more reward for their labour and were aggrieved that foreigners who did a similar job at a lower cost, had taken their work.
That was as true for plumbers, hotel staff, transport workers, and call centre staff as it was for car factories, banks, advertising agencies, and hospitals.
If Mussolini’s idea of fascism is coming back, it will do so in an accelerated and dramatic fashion
It’s a recurrent theme across the recent globalised world, where accelerated immigration has occurred. Native westerners believe they deserve a larger share of the world’s wealth without their productivity warranting it. The current system isn’t delivering the wealth they feel entitled to.
After nearly 20 years of Davos Neoliberal practices, Hillary Clinton and David Cameron failed to understand a critical re-shaping of political voter segmentation and needs: The traditional paradigm of individualism (right wing) versus collectivism (left wing) was no longer relevant.
It had, in fact, been replaced by whether a voter was pro or anti-globalisation. To understand the enormity of this change, Trump and Sanders should be the opposite wings of the same anti-globalisation party, and Obama and Bush should be opposite wings of the same pro-globalisation. It’s the most seismic shift in Western electoral ideology in centuries.
Nationalist politicians and power brokers saw a route to power: By making immigrants the enemy, they offered hope to the white native working class, that if they vote for them, the “great old days” will return.
This message resonated very strongly with older natives who remember a time when globalisation simply meant an Indian take-away or a visit to Taco Bell. They did not care for such intense diversity and believed their nation state was changing too far for their liking.
Instead of listening, empathising, and responding to this traditional voter base, the Davos Neoliberals sneered at them and the liberal-minded media responded in kind.
They failed to realise that social media is just an echo chamber for Davos Neoliberal political correctness. In fact, a silent majority thought that no amount of wishful thinking will make multi-culturalism a success for them. They “wanted their country back,” as they wished to “make America great again.”
But they could not openly debate the position, because they’d be labelled racist as soon as they put their heads above the parapet. This left the silent majority only one way to express their political belief: It’s through the anonymity of the ballot box that they voted to Brexit and make Donald Trump the most powerful man in the world.
If Mussolini’s idea of fascism is coming back, it will do so in an accelerated and dramatic fashion. France and Germany have elections in the coming months. India is transforming through the nationalism of Modi, while China and Russia also focus on building internal culture and wealth.
Having gained power, Trump now has to deliver on his promises. But he faces an economic oxymoron: If white natives are to “get their jobs back,” their cost of living will dramatically escalate.
A study of 40 countries found that if cross-border trade ended, the richest people would lose 28% of their purchasing power but the bottom 10% would lose 63%. The annual cost to American consumers of switching to non-Chinese tyres after Barack Obama slapped on anti-dumping tariffs in 2009 was around $1.1 billion, which amounts to over $900,000 for each of the 1,200 jobs that were saved.
It costs 1,000% more to manufacture a shirt in the UK than it does in Bangladesh, 400% more to manufacture an iPhone in US than China, 300% more to build a road with native-born people than contracted work permit immigrants. I don’t see how it can happen.
So, it’s globalists versus non-globalists. That’s the ball game for the next decade. Soon, the natives will realise they were hood-winked and that’s when the real trouble will begin. Only this time, institutions like the EU, NATO, and UN would have been weakened, and may not be able to smooth things over.
Toffael Rashid is a global marketing professional.