It’s been far from the reality of the pledge by the finance minister. In his budget speech, he spelt out a few measures haphazardly and reiterated old ones in support of businesses. AMA Muhith employed euphemisms or expressed pious wishes and great expectations, but forwent offering a breakthrough for an inclusive political economy.
Incentive packages with credible, innovative approaches that could have pulled investors back in business with renewed zeal were all but expected. This is something which is missing from the budget documents.
The minister instead set an unrealistically high target of growth at 7.3% for the next fiscal year, given this year’s attainment of a 6.2% growth, which too has been contested by all others outside his government. A key assumption in favour of projected growth is “favourable weather and political stability.”
Unfortunately, we have not come across any business leaders or potential investors who would believe that. What needs to be done to reinvigourate confidence in investors, according to them, is to ensure a peaceful political process on top of every other step required.
The minister remained evasive when I asked him how he would attain such growth, given the investment scenario and a variety of constraints in doing business.
Why then, has he set targets which are unlikely to be achieved? Simply because he has to do it to justify the Awami League clinging to power, by painting a bright picture or outlining high-sounding budgetary measures.
While following an ad hoc policy in authoring such a budget, Muhith has abandoned the five-year plan, as the Center for Policy Dialogue said. He repeatedly mentioned “five years” either to glorify activities during AL’s previous tenure, or to generate hopes of survival for the regime following the controversial January 5 polls. The issue of the manifesto for that one-sided, non-participatory election came three times in his speech only as a reference.
Who cares if the manifesto is transformed into fiscal programs, or when and if the ballot was rigged and manipulated? The finance minister was even smart enough to omit the title of AL’s 2013 manifesto “Marching Ahead Bangladesh: Road to Peace, Democratic Development and Prosperity.” A student of English literature, Muhith preferred a more appropriate title for the 2014-15 budget – “Beckoning a New Era of Prosperity.”
Will the genuine democratic development continue to beckon us the way the sky (horizon) appears to have touched our neighbourhood? It’s possible that the leaking of public exam question papers under Nurul Islam Nahid’s jurisdiction, the seven murders in Narayanganj, the abductions and killings in Feni and elsewhere, allegations of bribery against law enforcers, cheating with gold medals, plundering bank money, and the patronising terrorist godfathers are samples of the quality of governance this administration can offer the nation.
There is no one in parliament, legally and practically, to debate the budget proposals – for the first time in a democratic setup since 1991. This is reminiscent of the rubberstamped budget during the Ershad regime. Popular will, as often reflected in the opposition’s demand for, and the protest against, fiscal measures, is no longer tenable in Bangladesh.
Thus, it’s been an exercise in arithmetics, doling out benefits to a few, and the narcissism of the Awami mind. Look at the 2009-10 budget and the proposed one – the difference is the presence and absence of popular support in the two, respectively.
The BNP has finished its duty of criticising the budget proposals by terming the government illegitimate. Squarely blaming the BNP for political unrest, AL displays its unwillingness to create any space for dialogue in resolving the present political crisis.
So, knowing full well the situation is devoid of democratic pluralism, the finance minister came up with proposals and ideas that he considers are “realistic” in serving the interests of the regime.
Under hardly any pressure on implementation, Muhith has shown the luxury of sharing his own thoughts on decentralisation and administrative reforms despite the proven lack of commitment of his government to the devolution of power. Transfer of power to local entities, division of power between local government bodies, specialised bureaucracy at the grassroots, and fair revenue sharing are such issues for them.
The finance minister customarily held pre-budget consultations where most proposals came from a single group – the businesspeople. Some of their expectations have been met in the budget. However, the most critical issue – the restoration of business confidence – has not been addressed as Premier Sheikh Hasina and company are adamant in defying popular expectations of holding a widely participated election.
Is the government angry with the people for their failure to turn up in the January 5 polls, or vote for the AL candidates in the city corporation elections prior to the national polls? It would have been sympathetic towards them for the increasing costs of living, which, I am sure, have never been correctly reflected in official estimates of inflation.
Food adulteration is killing an entire generation but the government is not using the budgetary instruments to stop the import, manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of hazardous chemicals and foods. Instead, the prime minister resorted to mockery using formalin to demean the BNP’s leadership, cruelly ignoring the health hazard for its rampant use in food items.