This month, Indians elected Narendra Modi of the BJP to be the prime minister of the country – a man known to be a religious hardliner, and infamous for his actions (or lack thereof) in Gujarat during the communal riots of 2002 when he was the chief minister of the state. During his pre-election speeches, Modi referred to “illegal Bangladesh infiltrators” in India on several occasions, and pledged that if elected, he will make sure that they go back to Bangladesh.
It proved to be a successful election ploy for Modi, as he won a landslide victory, along with absolute majority in the Indian parliament. This is alarming for Bangladesh for two reasons. Firstly is the fact that the most powerful man in India at the moment harbours such beliefs. And secondly, that India is willing to vote him to power because he harbours such beliefs.
But is there really massive illegal intrusion by Bangladeshis to India as Modi and his supporters believe? Let us look at the information in hand. India has over 140 million Muslims at the moment, and many of them are living as second class citizens in their own country. It has been widely reported that they are denied proper representation in civil and military services, and are even denied from opening bank accounts and renting suitable apartments in some cities.
Their education level is among the lowest in India, and their political representation is next to nil (the Modi-led BJP government does not have a single Muslim amongst the 282 members who won seats in parliament). This poor attitude towards Indian Muslims does not get the attention it deserves because of the rousing economic success that India’s elite enjoyed in the last two decades. But the fact remains, that for 140 million Muslims in India, life has been pretty bleak, and is about to get much worse with the Modi-led BJP in power.
Undoubtedly, a sizable chunk of the 140 million Muslims in India are Bengali-speaking (Bihar, Orissa, and Assam have languages that are close to Bengali as well, and historically they were part of greater Bengal), and it is this demographic group that Modi keeps referring to as “illegal Bangladeshi intruders.”
Forty-one of the accused “intruders” lost their lives in the first week of Indian elections in Narayanguri, Assam. The situation bares resemblance with the Rohingya issue, as the Burmese government, like Modi, also claims that Rohingya Muslims who speak a language close to Bangla are actually Bangladeshis.
To label these people as Bangladeshis is just another form of economic marginalisation of the minority, and will undoubtedly cause tension not only amongst communities within India and Burma, but will also affect bilateral ties with the people of Bangladesh. This trend has historic connotations as well, and it dates back to colonial era that led up to the partition of Bengal, and later, the Indian sub-continent.
From a Bangladeshi point of view, this latest rhetoric by Modi is rather hollow and lacks factual evidence. Over the past two decades, Bangladesh significantly curbed population growth, and enjoys lower rates of population increase (1.2%) compared to India (1.3%). Bangladesh also leads India on most social indicators such as life expectancy (69 vs 65), infant (aged<1) deaths per 1,000 live births (37 vs 47), infant (aged<5) deaths per 1,000 live births (46 vs 61), maternal death per 100,000 live births (194 vs 200), infant immunisation rate (94% vs 66%), female (aged 15 – 24) literacy rate (77% vs 74%), and underweight children (36% vs 44%). It is rather inconceivable that people would migrate to a country that has a lower standard of living than their own.
Conversely, a large influx of people from India and Burma already had an adverse effect on the socio-economic environment of Bangladesh. An estimated 200,000 to 500,000 Rohingya refugees are living in Bangladesh at the moment, and they comprise largely of low-skilled peasants who are attracted to careers in crime and religious extremism in Bangladesh. In addition, an estimated half a million Indians are living and working illegally in Bangladesh, without paying any taxes. They sent $3.7bn in remittance to India from Bangladesh in 2013, making Bangladesh the 5th largest source of income for Indians.
The Bangladesh government’s open door policy, along with economic marginalisation of people from the border states of India and Burma (mostly Muslims) makes Bangladesh an attractive location for illegal immigration. The Bangladesh Bank needs to do more to curb the illegal outflow of money, and the government needs to make sure that it is protecting the country from illegal foreign intrusion.
With a high level of youth unemployment in Bangladesh, such a large inflow of people is not desirable for the economy and society in general. As for Mr Modi, he needs to accept the demographic realities of India, and try to accommodate and address the genuine grievances of the economically marginalised Indians, including Bengali-speaking Indian Muslims.