Rice isn't grown in the United Kingdom, but this staple of many Asian diets is imported and consumed in Britain every year. The diaspora population in London and across Britain shops for its monthly rice supply from groceries that likely source the grain from our part of the world. Interestingly, for the first time in recorded history, Britain has started growing paddy -- albeit experimentally this season -- thanks to a sharp rise in temperature that appears conducive to rice cultivation in the heart of Europe.
Nadine Mitschunas, from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, who has been leading the study, said that when she tells people she’s growing rice in the UK, they assume she’s joking. “Nobody has tried this before, but with climate change, we have crops that 10 years ago we wouldn’t have thought would be viable,” she told the BBC. “In 10 years’ time, rice could be a completely suitable crop for us.”
As Nadine eagerly awaits Britain’s first-ever rice harvest from her newly created paddy fields in Cambridgeshire, news of UK-grown paddy dominated global media headlines last week. This comes at a time when Britain has just experienced its hottest summer since records began in 1884.
The reason I chose this topic for today’s weekly column is deliberate. I wanted to emphasize the critical role of temperature variations, rapid shifts in weather patterns, and climate change -- considered a hoax by some global leaders -- in agriculture. While a rise in temperature in an otherwise cooler environment could benefit rice cultivation, surging heat could be detrimental for crop production in countries like Bangladesh, located in a tropical monsoon region.
Potential crop loss due to rising temperatures is a new reality, and Bangladesh now faces a crossroads regarding its future food security. Sharp temperature increases in recent decades are affecting how farmers grow rice and other crops. Rice is cultivated on over two-thirds of Bangladesh’s arable land, yet the country still struggles to meet domestic demand through yearly production. Some years, it must import rice from India, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam to fill the gap. Bangladesh, a land-scarce, densely populated country, is heavily dependent on imports for many other essential cereals and cooking oils, including wheat, maize, soybean, and palm oil.
Scientific studies have produced startling figures: for rice, a 1°C temperature increase could result in up to 7% yield loss under certain stress conditions. Farmers in Bangladesh have been urging rice breeders to develop early-maturing varieties so that rice planted during the winter Boro season can be harvested before the early onset of the hot summer, particularly to protect crops from higher nighttime temperatures.
Bangladesh is experiencing an increasing frequency of extreme heat events, with temperatures rising at an alarming rate. The economic toll is substantial -- up to $1.78 billion, or 0.4% of Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, according to a recent World Bank report, An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh.
The report analyzed national temperature and humidity trends from 1976–2023 and drew from a new two-round 2024 household survey of more than 16,000 people across Bangladesh. Since 1980, the country’s maximum temperature has risen by 1.1°C, while the “feels like” temperature has surged by 4.5°C, triggering a rise in health issues such as diarrhea, persistent cough, respiratory diseases, and fatigue.
Farmers working long hours in paddy fields are particularly affected by increasingly frequent heatwaves, which cause physical stress and mental health issues, including depression and anxiety. With rising temperatures, Bangladesh faces both physical and mental health risks, along with declining productivity and economic loss, according to the World Bank report.
Bangladesh has a humid, tropical monsoon climate, with an average mean temperature of 25.71°C. However, the country’s mean temperature has increased by 0.16°C per decade, along with a significant rise in the number of hot and humid days. Projections indicate that by midcentury, Bangladesh is likely to experience higher minimum and maximum temperatures and more severe apparent conditions due to high atmospheric moisture.
Unless the government invests more in crop science, and scientists and breeders prioritize developing varieties and cropping patterns capable of withstanding high heat stress, the country’s future food security looks bleak.
The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), a hub of rice science that has helped Bangladesh develop heat-tolerant rice varieties, notes that climate change significantly impacts rice production and yields. High night temperatures disrupt the grain-filling process in rice plants, leading to reduced yields and lower grain quality.
In Bangladesh, this results in substantial annual losses in rice production, threatening food security and farmer livelihoods. As temperatures continue to rise, the need for heat-tolerant rice varieties becomes increasingly critical to sustain production and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
Rice yields decline with rising temperatures because:
1) High temperatures interfere with photosynthesis and increase respiration, reducing overall plant productivity;
2) Warm temperatures, especially high night temperatures, negatively affect the grain-filling process;
3) extreme heat can cause direct physiological damage to the rice plant, including reduced dry matter allocation to shoots and roots;
4) The negative impact of temperature increases on rice yields is not linear -- beyond certain thresholds, yield losses become much more severe.
Bangladesh’s population is expected to continue growing for a few more years before stabilizing. Meanwhile, the country must produce more rice and other crops from progressively smaller farmlands under severe heat stress conditions. This calls for serious policy interventions, including strategic realignment of long-term food security plans, increased investment in agricultural research and development, and capacity building in frontier sciences.
Reaz Ahmad is Editor, Dhaka Tribune.