Hubert Humphrey Jr -- the 38th Vice-President of the United States (US) -- had once remarked, Foreign policy is really domestic policy with its hat on.
Indeed, the trajectory of a state’s foreign policy is largely dependent on and influenced by its domestic political, economic, ideological, and cultural circumstances, and Bangladesh is no exception in this regard.
For decades, Bangladeshi foreign policy has remained hamstrung owing to the absence of coherent goals and objectives, the lack of a national consensus, and the relative underdevelopment of its military and economic capabilities.
This situation needs to change, as no state can realistically expect to survive the geopolitical, technological, and ideological shocks of the 21st century without having a clearly defined, consciously articulated, and bold foreign policy.
Existing conditions
Since Bangladesh emerged as a sovereign state in 1971, successive governments have deliberately pursued a non-aligned, relatively passive, reactive, and economically driven foreign policy, with occasional tilts to major powers (such as the 1980s tilt to the US and the 2010s tilt to India).
Short-term and party-political objectives were prioritized over long-term and broader national considerations. Yet, the country contains a number of elements conducive to the pursuit of an ambitious, bold, and interest-driven foreign policy.
These elements include: A large manpower pool with a sizable diaspora, a massive internal market, a growing economy with considerable potential for economic expansion, and a sizable and modernizing military.
A strategically important location along the Indian Ocean and at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, but has a strong potential for fostering historically-based, rooted-in-the-soil civic and territorial nationalism.
In order to utilize the existing elements for pursuing a successful foreign policy, Bangladesh will require visionary, calculative, and committed statesmen.
A broad national consensus on the key objectives of the state’s foreign policy, increased professionalization and rationalization of the state’s Foreign Service, and greater coordination among government agencies with regard to foreign affairs should be proposed.
The state should develop comprehensive and well-articulated strategy documents, including a foreign policy concept, a national security strategy, a national defence strategy, a maritime doctrine, and a broader Indo-Pacific strategy (As a replacement for the brief Indo-Pacific Outlook).
Navigating great power competition
The success of the Bangladeshi independence movement was, to a large extent, a by-product of great power competition among the US, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), and China.
Currently, Bangladesh is confronted with an intensifying geopolitical competition in its immediate and extended neighbourhood, illustrated by growing Sino-US, US-Russian, Sino-- Indian, and Sino-Japanese confrontations.
Amidst this complex scenario, Dhaka has so far followed a policy of non-alignment and greater engagement with great and regional powers, with its actions sometimes resembling hedging. However, the state needs to be more proactive in its dealings with great and regional powers.
The US is the single largest market for Bangladeshi exports, particularly its chief export good -- ready-made garments (RMG), and the biggest source of foreign direct investment (FDI). So, cooperative relations with the US are vital to the country’s economic prosperity.
However, overdependence on a single export market is detrimental to the country’s economic and political sovereignty, and the recent imposition of tariffs on Bangladesh by the US demonstrates it succinctly.
Accordingly, Bangladesh should strive to enhance its partnership with the US through attracting more FDI and acquiring access to technology, but it should simultaneously diversify its export market as well as its export basket.
Dhaka should refrain from signing military cooperation agreements, such as the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), with the US, which can drag the country into unnecessary external conflicts in the future.
On the other hand, China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and the biggest source of imports. The Chinese model of economic and infrastructure development can serve as a model for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh should utilize the opportunity provided by the opening of the Chinese market to Bangladeshi products through the expansion of its export basket to China.
Also, as a part of the Chinese-financed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Bangladesh should attract Chinese investments for vital national projects, including the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project.
Bangladesh should acquire more advanced military hardware, such as J-10C multirole combat aircraft, from China. However, Bangladesh should ensure that the Hambantota conundrum is not replicated on its territory, and while seeking entry into Chinese-backed institutions, such as BRICS, Dhaka should strongly push for greater economic and financial leverage.
Meanwhile, India is Bangladesh’s largest neighbour and one of the most important trading partners. Bangladesh should strive to minimize unnecessary frictions in its relations with New Delhi and instead foster greater economic cooperation.
However, taking into account India’s domestic political realities, Dhaka should acquire the necessary deterrent capability to forestall any military conflict between the two neighbours.
In particular, Dhaka should prudently internationalize the transboundary river disputes with India, enhance its border security capabilities to curb illegal crossings and border killings, and prevent Indian attempts to forcibly expel people to Bangladesh.
Russia is constructing a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh, and plays an important role in the country’s energy and food security. Dhaka should use its steady partnership with Moscow to gain access to military and civilian technology, and procure sophisticated air defence and electronic warfare systems from Russia.
Also, Dhaka, in collaboration with Moscow, can establish joint production facilities for military equipment on Bangladeshi territory. Moreover, Russia is experiencing a demographic decline and growing problems with Central Asian immigrants.
Dhaka should use this opportunity to export part of its surplus manpower to Russia. Also, following in the footsteps of China, India, and Turkey, Bangladesh can purchase large quantities of Russian oil at discounted prices to fill up its strategic energy reserves.
However, Bangladesh should emphasize its sensitivities to Russia, for example, about the recruitment of Bangladeshi citizens into the Russian military.
All the while, Bangladesh should not get embroiled in the competition among these great and regional powers, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. It should foster cooperative and mutually beneficial relations with each of them, but it should desist from picking a side in their rivalries.
Enhancing ties with middle powers
Economic and political transformations in the 21 st century have strengthened the position of middle powers, such as Japan, Turkey, and South Korea.
Bangladesh already maintains strong diplomatic and economic partnerships with these states, and it should further develop these ties by fostering increased trade relations, diplomatic interactions, cultural exchanges, and people-to-people communication.
Moreover, these states have indigenously developed decent defence-industrial enterprises, and Bangladesh should carefully observe these developments.
Dhaka should procure sophisticated military equipment from these states to reduce the possibility of overdependence on a single supplier, and at the same time, it should strive to develop its indigenous defence industry in collaboration with these powers.
Increasing involvement in Africa
Bangladesh has participated with distinction in numerous international peace support operations on the Dark Continent, and Bangladeshi entrepreneurs have attained considerable success in several African states, including Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and South Africa.
However, these successes have largely been achieved through private initiatives. Dhaka should encourage these endeavors, develop political, diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties with African states, and facilitate economic activities in those countries.
In particular, Bangladesh has great potential in sub-Saharan Africa in sectors such as agro- industrial complexes, light manufacturing, retail, and internet.
Moreover, Bangladesh should enhance security ties with African states, including the training of African personnel, the holding of joint drills, and cooperation in combating piracy. If Bangladesh succeeds in developing a decent arms industry, African states can be its primary customers.
Since Bangladesh had no involvement whatsoever in the colonial exploration of Africa, its growing footprints in the region are unlikely to bring about backlash from the local population, and African-Bangladeshi ties can serve as a model of South-South cooperation.
Cultivating the diaspora
Bangladesh has a large diaspora population scattered throughout the world, numbering approximately 7.5 million.
Large Bangladeshi communities exist in several Middle Eastern states, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Lebanon, as well as in India, the United Kingdom (UK), Malaysia, Singapore, the US, Italy, Canada, Australia, the Maldives, Greece, Spain, Japan, and South Africa.
Remittances sent from these countries constitute an important component of Bangladesh’s economy. Yet, so far, Dhaka has failed to use its large diaspora in a strategic manner.
Hence, Dhaka should undertake concerted and calculated measures to build comprehensive and cohesive ties with its diaspora communities, help the communities in strengthening their positions in their host countries, and utilize these ties to enhance its prestige and clout at the international level.
In fact, Bangladesh should help its diaspora communities in becoming ‘model minorities’ in their host countries, curb irregular migration from Bangladesh, and develop ways for increased legal migration.
Diplomatic missions should provide the diaspora communities with adequate legal, administrative, and psychological assistance. In doing so, Bangladesh should carefully study how countries, such as India, China, and Turkey, cultivate and strategically use their diaspora communities.
Bangladesh should explore new markets for the export of its surplus manpower, and the prospective destinations include Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, Eastern European, and African states.
Localizing the Rohingya crisis
Bangladesh currently hosts more than 1.4 million Rohingya refugees, originating from northern Rakhine State of Myanmar. So far, Dhaka’s efforts to resolve the crisis through bilateral, trilateral, and international mechanisms have achieved little success.
Meanwhile, Myanmar is embroiled in a multi-front civil war, and 90% of the Rakhine State is controlled by the Arakan Army, a Rakhine ethnonationalist military formation. So far, the Arakan Army has proved to be as merciless and discriminatory towards the Rohingyas as the Tatmadaw had been, and its actions have repeatedly violated Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
While Bangladesh should continue its efforts to resolve the refugee crisis through diplomatic means, it should also explore unorthodox methods to contain and ultimately resolve the crisis.
Bangladesh should meticulously document all Rohingyas living within its territory, prevent their local integration via corrupt means, and closely monitor all activities of the Rohingyas. At the same time, Dhaka should carefully nurture a sense of community and solidarity among the Rohingyas, help foster political and civic organizations, and prevent intra-Rohingya clashes through greater monitoring of Rohingya armed outfits.
In addition, Bangladesh should develop an adequate deterrent capability along its border withn Myanmar to prevent any violation of the country’s sovereignty by any actor from that state.
Most importantly, Bangladesh should continuously remind the international community that the solution to the Rohingya crisis lies in the Rakhine State and not in Bangladesh, and it should help the Rohingyas in finding that solution.
Monitoring regional conflicts
Since 2022, insurgency in the Chattogram Hill Tracts (CHT) has made a resurgence through the Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF), and it is directly linked to conflicts in Myanmar’s Chin State and India’s Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur states.
Bangladesh should carefully monitor these conflicts, undertake comprehensive security measures to prevent the KNF or other militant groups from crossing borders in either direction, curtail the infusion of arms and foreign militants, and if necessary, cooperate with foreign actors, including sub-state and non-state actors, to crush insurgencies within its borders. However, insurgencies can never be defeated through solely military means.
Hence, Dhaka should engage directly with the ethnic communities in the CHT, conduct carefully prepared ‘hearts and minds’ campaigns, and address their grievances.
Taking into account current regional and international contexts, it is highly likely that external actors would try to utilize any insurgency in the CHT to undermine Bangladesh from within, so this issue should be given topmost priority by government agencies.
Emergence of a middle power
For far too long, Bangladesh has remained a small or minor power in international politics, largely sustained by its passive, reactive, and incoherent foreign policies.
However, the brutal realities of the 21st century, amply illustrated by the devastating Russian-Ukrainian War, the Israeli genocidal war in the Gaza Strip, and the unraveling of the international economic order through US tariff wars.
The growth of extreme nationalism and religious fundamentalism in Bangladesh’s neighbourhood and beyond, and the sophisticated inter-state conflicts throughout the world, leaves no country with the luxury of following an inactive and incoherent foreign policy.
Under these circumstances, Bangladesh should use its political, diplomatic, economic, and military capabilities to pursue a vigorous, ambitious, coherent, objective, and solely interest-driven foreign policy to establish itself as a middle power in the international system.
Md Himel Rahman is a lecturer, Department of International Relations, Gopalganj Science and Technology University.