There are two mutually linked [false] narratives constructed and nurtured by India following Bangladesh's July-Aug 2024 Gen-Z-led people's uprising. First, the minorities (especially Hindus) are being persecuted because of their religion by the extremists in Bangladesh. Second, the student-led movement was not a popular uprising but a military-backed “coup.” The End State of these two false narratives is de-legitimizing and de-stabilizing the interim government borne out of the people's uprising -- particularly at a time when the opposite is true and gaining momentum by Bangladesh's engagement at the United Nations and the potential visit by some Delhi-based EU ambassadors to Dhaka.
In short, India, caught by surprise of the July-August uprising, now seems to be on a mission of “Making the Real” through a process of “rhetorical adduction.” Rhetorical adduction, as per Joseph O'Mahoney, (2017) is the process by which “states try to raise support for their position first by constructing an argument in which a particular action represents part of an argument, and then by performing that action to make the argument seem more convincing.” It is more than a simple battle of narratives -- as it involves taking action to make the argument more convincing and linking the action to a policy.
India’s project of “Making the Real” seems to have entered a new phase. The initial rhetoric by some Indian media outlets are now buttressed by the country's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) statement following the arrest of a former Iskcon leader by the Bangladeshi law enforcing agency. The Indian MEA had generally refrained from issuing statements or avoided responding to questions related to Bangladesh's internal affairs.
However, this has changed. The MEA atypically issued a statement following the arrest of a former Iskcon leader in Bangladesh. In the regular media brief, the MEA spokesperson also expressed concern at the “surge of extremist rhetoric, increasing incidents of violence and provocation” in Bangladesh -- somewhat aligning MEA's position to what some sections of Indian media was propagating following Bangladesh's July-August uprising.
The MEA statement has now emboldened India’s mainstream media and the ultra-nationalist groups to bandwagon a similar narrative. They will try to establish MEA’s “wrong decision” concerning the July-August uprising in Bangladesh. Viewed in a wider canvas, India’s scheme of “rhetorical adduction” in the context of Bangladesh, seems to reflect what Ajit Doval once said: “I don't always take [the] right decision, I just take decision and work really hard to make that decision right.”
Such an approach in the conduct of foreign policy is likely to make a bad situation worse. If anything, the unprecedented attack on Bangladesh’s deputy high commission office in Tripura -- a clear violation of the Vienna Convention -- reflects such a reality.
Describing India’s foreign policy towards Bangladesh as putting “all eggs in one [read Sheikh Hasina’s] basket,” some informed Indian analysts and commentators have, in the recent past, criticized and questioned the MEA approach. They recommended taking a people-centric approach instead of a regime-centric approach in the conduct of foreign policy, which has been missing in the last decade and a half.
Such limited but staid criticism is now fading away -- presumably induced by MEA's rhetorical abduction. It will not be surprising to see vocal contributions by some Bangladeshi/West Bengal “commentators” supporting MEA’s narrative, who may or may not be aware of India’s desired End State in the context of Bangladesh.
That said, the way forward to fight the false narrative is, to a large extent, in the hands of Bangladeshi polity.
First, the Bangladeshi polity needs to have a bare minimum of national unity on the issue of national sovereignty and political independence. The political divide based on the party we support or align ourselves with needs to be kept aside in these trying times.
Some of our hesitation and rhetorical expression to accept that the July-Aug uprising reflected a genuine people's aspiration and was not imposed on us by external actors plays in the hands of India's false narrative and their mission of de-legitimizing the interim government and subsequent isolation. The time to accept the truth and unite under it is now.
Second, to secure national unity, we need to initiate -- though a bit late -- a truth and reconciliation process. This would facilitate creating a space for those who are patriots at heart but are struggling to accept the truth due to their past affiliations or alignments. The “cancel culture” through media trials can be reduced if we establish a due process for truth and reconciliation.
Third, and most importantly, the military -- the only remaining institute of the country that continues to enjoy greater legitimacy -- needs to avoid falling into the trap of India's mission of “Making the Real” while remaining firm and fixed in their “in aid to civil power” role to bring stability and security. Any attempt or provocation to deviate from this path will be disingenuous and counterproductive for long-term national unity and interest.
In sum, India’s “rhetorical adduction” leading to policy change largely lies in the susceptibility and value of the audience that India aims to adduce. For now, India seems to have targeted the US audience and some sections of the American polity, including President-elect Trump have been susceptible to the Indian false narrative. However, this is unlikely to affect -- if at all -- US policy towards Bangladesh until January 2025. This gives Bangladesh some crucial time to act on the three way outs listed above.
One promising sign is that our domestic polity, including the military, has largely remained less gullible to the Indian narrative. This is evidenced by, not just the statements of the grieving father of Advocate Saiful Islam -- allegedly slain by the followers of the former Iskcon leader -- calling for calm and unity but also the Chief of Army Staff pledge: “I will stand beside him [Prof Yunus]. Come what may. So that he can accomplish his mission.”
Mohammad Zahidul Islam Khan, PhD is a Chevening Scholar, currently affiliated with the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Reading, United Kingdom as a Visiting Research Fellow and the American International University-Bangladesh as Registrar. He can be reached at, zikhan@aiub.edu.