Wars and conflicts, in general, create a deep scar in human lives. But they totally shatter the world of the poor and the marginalized people. Invaluable lives are lost, and along with lost lives, wars and conflicts also destroy the assets of the people, including their homes and shelters. Infrastructures are wiped out and the supply of various services, such as safe water, electricity, and sanitation breaks down. Because of wars and conflicts, there are shortages of food, resulting in food insecurity, and the levels of undernourishment in the affected society go up. Ultimately, the future of conflicted countries and their people become uncertain.
In the downward spiral of conflicts and wars, they become mutually reinforcing, leading to deeper deprivations. By impacting the economy negatively and widening inequalities, wars and conflicts directly impact poverty adversely. Conflicts, by destroying the infrastructures of a country, deepens the extent of impoverishment. On the other hand, the pre-existence of poverty in a society, enhances the possibility of conflicts. In a resource-deficit society, various social groups fight for resources, for their respective shares in the resource base. Under such circumstances, the sense of disparities, exclusion, and injustice becomes intense. Conflicts thus become inevitable in a deprived society.
Traditionally, the discussion on poverty mainly focuses on income poverty -- both in analytical debates, as well as in measurements. But it is now well accepted that the issue of poverty is neither linear, nor unidimensional. In fact, impoverishments do exist in non-income dimensions as well, like deprivations in education, health, nutrition, safe drinking water, jobs and employment etc. Income deficits do not always reflect deprivations in these areas. For example, a person can be wealthy, but illiterate. In that case, he or she may not be income-poor, but is definitely deprived in knowledge. But it is difficult to identify as to which deprivation is the most the extreme one, since the issue on hand is subjective. Different people would prioritize different deprivations according to their own perceptions.
It should also be remembered that human development depends not only on the physical well-being of people, but also on their voice and autonomy, their right to participate in processes that affect their lives, and the environmental balance. Even after achieving physical well-being, a person may not have the freedom of expression. Or he or she, just because of his or her background, may not be allowed in some places of worship or may not participate in many social events. These are also human deprivations. Thus, in the ultimate analysis, human poverty is not unidimensional, rather multidimensional.
A few years ago, in order to measure multidimensional poverty, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Oxford University Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) started collaborating to construct a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). This composite index includes 10 indicators in three basic dimensions -- health, education, and the standard of living. Three observations are pertinent in this respect.
First, the MPI is not a linear measure, as it includes multiple aspects of derivations. Second, even if the MPI is a broader measure of poverty than income-poverty, yet it focuses only on non-income dimensions of deprivations. As a result, the assessment of income poverty in a country requires income-poverty measures. Third, the MPI also concentrates on the physical well-being of people, and not on people’s voice and autonomy, their freedom for participation or the environmental balance.
The most recent research report on global multidimensional poverty, in fact the seventh in the series, was published two weeks ago. The basic theme of this year’s report is “conflicts and multidimensional poverty.” Drawing on the data for different survey periods, the MPI was constructed for 122 countries. The MPI results indicate that globally, out of the 6.3 billion people of the world, 1.1 billion (27% of the global population) are in multidimensional poverty.
In recent times, violent conflicts have surged. In 2023, the world witnessed more ongoing conflicts than at any time since the Second World War. More than 117 million people -- an all-time record -- were forced to flee from their homes because of violent conflicts, disasters, and other factors. The time-period 2021-2023 recorded a total of more than 700,000 battle-related deaths globally.
If the sources of conflicts are identified and their impacts are tackled, the poor and the marginalized people in conflict countries would get a real chance to revitalize their lives and livelihoods
In Africa, home of 28 of the 59 global state-based conflicts, conflict-related deaths surpassed 150,000 in 2023, a record high in the region. At the end of 2023, the ongoing war in Ukraine has produced 6 million refugees and 9 million internally-displaced people. The conflict in Gaza has resulted in an estimated 83% of the total population being internally displaced with the destruction of 60% of Gaza’s housing stock. The armed confrontations in Sudan have damaged more than 10,000 schools, depriving 19 million children of education.
When we look at the linkages between conflicts and multidimensional poverty, we find that in the combined conflict-ridden countries, the incidence of multidimensional poverty is 34%, implying that in those countries, one in every three persons are in multidimensional poverty. In minor conflict countries, 23% of their population live in multidimensional poverty. On the other hand, in countries, free from wars and conflicts, the incidence of multidimensional poverty is only 10%. In absolute terms, out of the 1. 1 billion people in multidimensional poverty, 460 million people (40%) live in conflict-affected countries.
A large number of people in some of the poorest countries in the world are victims of multidimensional poverty. About 84% of the population of Chad, 81% of the people of the Central African Republic, and 75% of the population in Burundi live in multidimensional poverty. Such data point to the homes of the multidimensionally poor and the strong linkages between conflicts and multidimensional poverty.
An analysis of the MPI in conflict countries indicates that in every dimension of this composite index, the conflict countries are in bad shape. For example, only 4% people of these countries have access to electricity, as opposed to 27% people in non-conflict countries. Or, while only 10% of people in conflict-countries have access to cooking energy, the corresponding figure for non-conflict countries is 31%.
An analysis of the linkages between conflicts and multidimensional poverty brings out three facts. One, the incidence of multidimensional poverty is higher in conflict countries; two, the higher value of the MPI in conflict countries is because of their sluggish economic growth, destroyed physical infrastructures, shrinking of service delivery structures, and the breakdown of the lives and livelihoods of their people. Three, the affected people in conflict countries are concerned not only with the immediate effects of conflicts on them, but also with the impacts of the conflict-poverty dynamic for future generations.
In that context, the urgent global measures to tackle multidimensional poverty, priorities must give priority to conflict countries, so that in the process of global poverty elimination, no one is left behind. All conflicts need to be resolved urgently, so that infrastructures are not destroyed, economic growth does not slow down, and development expenditures do not skyrocket. The global community must work together for targeted assistance and reconstruction of destroyed structures, in order to create a pathway of freedom for those who are the victims of multidimensional poverty.
A major initiative in this area can be consolidation of data collection work in conflict countries. Reliable data can be mobilized in remote and poorly accessible areas through innovative approaches and collaboration with local institutions. Resource mobilization and financing must be prioritized for putting the statistical framework on a solid foundation. Robust data is required to understand the extent and nature of multidimensional poverty in conflict countries.
The elimination of multidimensional poverty in conflict countries requires a consolidated effort. Peace keeping, humanitarian assistance and poverty eradication initiatives are part of that effort. This would create resilience and pave the way for sustainable reconstruction. Conflicts through different channels shatter the lives of people, particularly of the poor and the marginalized people. If the sources of conflicts are identified and their impacts are tackled, the poor and the marginalized people in conflict countries would get a real chance to revitalize their lives and livelihoods.
Dr Selim Jahan is Former Director, Human Development Report Office and Poverty Division, United Nations Development Program, New York, USA.