Construction of connectivity infrastructure often indicates possible changes in the migration behaviour of the local communities. Padma Bridge is one such construction connecting the southwestern region of Bangladesh to the rest of the country, thereby allowing improved road access to 21 districts.
The great influx
According to the World Bank report “Bangladesh -- Country Economic Memorandum: Change of Fabric,” Munshiganj on the north of the bridge along with Faridpur and Barisal on the south will be the most benefited regions. The report goes on to mention that rural communities would benefit greatly as these communities are usually prone to migration. It is also predicted that the population will rise by 6-12% in the bridge adjacent areas directly due to the enhanced connectivity. This means an inward flow of migration is predicted for these regions, indicating a rise in the labour supply of this region.
Even with such an influx of people in the directly connected regions, the wages in these regions may still experience a 2-4% rise. This is because the demand for labour will likely increase even more than the supply, which may result in the possible rise of wages. With the possibilities of decentralization and enhanced access to greater marketplaces, employment opportunities will only flourish. There will likely be great entrepreneurial drives along with increasing employment for trained workers resulting from the upward trend of wages. Healthcare facilities will improve which will support the supply of skilled labour. Overall, the bridge is predicted to generate 1.2% of the total labour force employment for the country.
On another hand, outward migration may reduce in the adjacent areas due to an increase in employment opportunities. Employment for 10 lakh people is expected to be created in a five year timeline due to industrialization since the establishment of the bridge, which will create a total of 30-40 lakh employment scopes in the next 10 years. Barisal is considered to be one of the focus areas for this flow of employment.
Greater opportunities for all
As a result, many of the south Bengal migrants will find work closer to home and the outward migration toward Dhaka or other locations will be reduced. The probability of migration reduces as the distance to the destination increases. If there are employment opportunities in south Bengal, the chances of migration to further areas will be reduced. The labour market of other regions of the country may face lower supply pressure in the future.
With the rise of employment scopes in the region, the growth of universities, and educational and skill training facilities around the bridge will reduce the number of Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) youths. This scope of skill development will lower skill-hungry migration from the southern region and the migration of already skilled workers in the hopes of higher returns. The region will experience a supply of highly skilled labour sourced locally.
The bridge will increase the social mobility of women with the growth of healthcare and educational facilities. Migration for educational purposes will no longer be a necessity. Women previously unable to access skill training due to barriers of migration will have the opportunity to become participants of the skilled labour force. The supply of locally sourced female labour to service and other industries will again shift the labour force supply curve up.
Employment for 10 lakh people is expected to be created in a five year timeline due to industrialization since the establishment of the bridge
This will all ease the pressure on Dhaka by not only reducing the vast labour supply, but by also reducing the pressure on wages and improving urban unemployment. According to the Harris-Todaro migration model, urban unemployment is due to unbalanced growth in urban industrialization resulting in higher wages. Due to an increment in local employment scopes or the demand for labour along with an increase in potential wages, the urban migration flow would be reduced.
If the urban informal sector has high-earning opportunities, it raises the expected urban wage which still makes migration a rational decision for southern region communities. Due to formal employment scopes being enhanced by the establishment of the bridge, the urban informal sector loses its appeal and the local wage may rise compared to the urban expected wage. Overall, migration may become an unattractive, irrational decision for even the youth of the southwestern communities as their chances of skill development and receiving better-paying formal employment rise without having to incur the very large migration costs.
But when the oceans rise
In the long term, the effects of climate change may become more drastic and an exodus flow of migration may occur. Southern areas are threatened with a possible 1.5-2m rise in the sea level along with land erosion, flooding, and salinity which will result in locals migrating to northern parts of the country creating migration pressure on Dhaka as well.
This situation may exacerbate before 2150 and in the long run, wages will experience a 4-7% drop, especially in the most affected regions. Climate disasters will make business operations harder in these regions making the demand for labour fall. The demand reduction would likely be greater than the drop in labour supply, which would thereby create more competition for wages.
By 2050 Bangladesh is expected to have 19 million climate migrants, the majority of which target Dhaka as a migration destination. The migration induced by natural causes needs to be managed for the structural balance of the capital and other regions. This requires protection from natural calamities and sea level rise which demands national investment.
The construction of the bridge does help reduce the probability of some disasters. The river training practices of the Padma bridge helps decrease chances of land erosion, which is a crucial aspect of migration outflow. So the bridge can still work as a beneficial addition from a climate perspective, as well as an economic development perspective affecting the migration, employment, and wage factors of the region.
Ulfatara Bejori, Nafisa Kabir Rhyin, and Takrin Rahman,are Master's students, at East West University.