“We do not intend to unleash any war. We are not going to invade Ukraine as we are being accused of in Ukraine itself and not only there.” -- the statement was made by Leonid Slutsky, Russian State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs just a few hours before Vladimir Putin declared his “special military operation” in the Donbas on February 24, 2022.
One year has passed since the “hysteria of war” came true, but the war is still continuing, killing thousands. According to UN estimation, the war has already taken more than 8,000 civilian lives and has led to about 13,300 injuries till now. The question is: When will the war come to an end?
On March 25 of the same year, after fighting for one month, Russia announced a change in its war strategy, claiming completion of the first phase of its special military operations. Russia withdrew its military forces from North Eastern Ukraine and redeployed those into the Donbas region and Southern Ukraine.
Russia, conspicuously, changed its military tactic due to the setback its military faced in Northern Ukraine. Russia has largely reduced its mission from regime change in Ukraine to consolidating hold on the territories it has gained in Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine has reclaimed 54% of the land conquered by Russia since February last year. In September 2022, Ukraine claimed that it had reclaimed about 8,000sq-km of their territory since the beginning of the war. On the other hand, in responding to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the G-7, the European Union, and Australia have set a price cap coalition on seaborne Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel from December 5 last year. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree on countermeasures, prohibiting selling oil and oil products if the contracts envisage a price cap from February 1 of this year.
Several Western countries in January decided to send advanced tanks to Ukraine, which would potentially escalate the war in Ukraine. For example, Germany provided Leopard 1, 2, Poland Leopard 2, UK Challenger 2, and the US M1 Abrahams. Though Ukraine promised not to use those weapons to attack Russian territory, the Ukraine crisis will be prolonged as neither side has any tendency to end the war.
In response to the decision of the US and the West, Russia planned to strengthen its position before advanced tanks reached Ukraine and increased its offensive attack on Ukraine. Russia has reoccupied several key cities and deployed a huge number of troops to hold its already occupied territories. The West is gradually turning their war goal toward Ukraine's victory as an ultimate goal of their proxy war.
That's why Western countries are planning to send more advanced weapons to Ukraine.
It is plenty evident through the statement by US President Biden just days before the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of the country. In front of thousands of crowds in Warsaw -- where the Warsaw Pact was signed by the Soviet bloc to balance the Western NATO during the cold war -- Joe Biden stated: “There should be no doubt, our support for Ukraine will not waiver. NATO will not be divided and we will not tire.”
Biden also reiterated what he stated nearly a year before in Warsaw that Russia will “never” win the Ukraine war. During the 23-hour surprise visit to Poland, the US President announced another $500 million worth of weapon package for the war-torn Ukraine. The latest promise of the military aid package is the 32nd such installment that has accumulated nearly $30 billion since Russia first took over Crimea in 2014.
Russia, through changes in strategy and military leadership, has partially reclaimed its strength in Eastern Ukraine. There are no possibilities of a diplomatic solution in sight as Russia had rejected peace proposals given by both the G7 and the Ukrainian president himself. In the medium term the war would be protracted, and in the long-run it would turn into a frozen conflict.
The US appears to want to drag the war for a long time, aiming to substantially weaken the Russian economy and its military; the country most likely hopes for a change of the current regime of Russia by invoking discontent within Russia's public itself. The offensive long-range weaponry to Ukraine supplied by the West will embolden Ukraine to shift from being defensive to offensive to, ultimately, a frozen conflict.
Aggressive world leaders need to understand that war seldom ever follows peace. The devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria showed us that humanity and peaceful co-existence are the cornerstones of living in harmony. Due to the war, the price of everyday commodities has been soaring to newer heights paving the way to global economic instability.
With the prevailing situation in Ukraine, it is estimated that the nation is gradually drifting away from any negotiated solution to the crisis due to the increased military aid which has resulted in achievements on the ground and a virtual stalemate in the war.
Dr Shafik A Rahman is a Postdoctoral Fellow, International Relations of Southeast Asia at the National University of Singapore.