Under the shadow of the complex Ukraine crisis, President Erdogan is pushing his goals in neighbouring Syria and sweeping gains from all possible directions. While Moscow is distracted, Turkey is building alliances with other Black Sea states like Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Romania, and Moldova and advancing its geopolitical influence. Turkey has played a mediating role in the Russia-Ukraine war due to its complex ties with both blocs.
Although Erdogan has consistently backed Kyiv and supplied critical weapons, he refrained from imposing sanctions against Russia. Turkey is a major consumer and transit country for Russian energy exports. And, Russian visitors make up a large portion of Turkey's $30 billion-a-year tourism industry (pre-pandemic). In July, it brokered the deal for Ukrainian grain ships to set sail from Odessa with help from the United Nations. Its trade relations with Russia are still booming.
Turkey has been calling for a military offensive against the Syrian Kurdish militia, the People's Protection Units (YPG), since May. It is the backbone of the US-led Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) that drove ISIS away from vast areas of Syria. If executed, this will be the fourth such operation since 2016.
Interestingly, YPG is closely linked with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the current source of ongoing tensions between the Nato allies and Ankara. Due to decades-long insurgencies, Turkey considers PKK a terrorist organization and a threat to national security.
In the growing fear of a possible Russian invasion, Finland and Sweden applied for Nato membership on May 18, 2022. Ankara has accused Sweden and Finland of giving asylum and support to the PKK. Thus, it refused to extend Nato membership to the Nordic countries without specific concessions.
Halting the membership can help Erdogan attain political leverage as the West would be more inclined to accept his demands: Such as removing arms export restrictions (imposed in 2019 following a military strike against YPG), abandoning support for the Kurdish militia, giving terrorist extradition rights, etc.
Both Finland and Sweden hold strategic importance in deterring future Russian aggression and keeping their power in check. Finland and Russia share a 1,300-kilometre border that would give Nato a long-connected frontier with western Russia. Sweden's Gotland island in the Baltic Sea can give Nato strategic leverage in encircling Russia's primary route to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The Finnish and Swedish armies also have significant military capabilities. However, despite the alliance's enthusiastic response, Turkey vetoed the membership application. Admission of new states requires consensus from all Nato members.
President Erdogan intends to free northern Syria's Tal Rifaat and Manbij areas of terrorists and advance into other regions. Nato allies, especially the US, have urged against the operation, which would renew the ISIS threat, risk US troops' safety, and create a humanitarian crisis. Erdogan also stated Turkey wants more help from Iran and Russia. The two Syrian allies have previously warned against such operations and have called instead for a diplomatic solution in Syria.
Moscow diplomats have also raised concerns that such action will escalate violence and destabilize the region. Russia's Foreign Affairs Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement -- “Such a move, without the agreement of the legitimate government of the Syrian Arab Republic, would be a direct violation of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Erdogan is acting at a moment when Turkey has leverage over both Western nations and Russia. Thus, they might be less inclined to oppose such an incursion.
However, President Recep Tayyib Erdogan's real motives lie beyond the national security and counter-terrorism stance. As stated by Guney Yildiz, a Turkey expert and PhD researcher at Cambridge University -- “managing the anti-Kurdish and anti-refugee beliefs is a significant factor in attracting voters in the upcoming election.”
Erdogan has already announced a plan to repatriate more than one million Syrians to heavily militarized Turkish security-controlled lands in northern Syria. Many Turkish citizens blame the large number of refugees for their economic collapse and have strong anti-refugee sentiments. As such, the offensive could be an attempt to distract citizens from the failing economy and double-digit inflation.
President Erdogan also announced a rebranding campaign to promote Turkish culture and language. Subsequently, the Turkish government formally requested the UN to change the country's name from Turkey to “Türkiye'' in July. Recently, the Erdogan government ratified a False News bill targeted at effective media control. This further suppresses criticism of the ruling government and the possibility of a fair election.
Tabassum Elahi is a Coordinator of the Foreign Policy Team at Youth Policy Forum.