In politics, it is prudent never to write anyone off. Yet as Pakistan’s former President General Pervez Musharraf began his judicial custody in Islamabad, the “writing off,” is on the wall.
Besides the judiciary, he has won little support from other political parties, the public at large, and remains a target of the right wing and the Taliban. In India, (where many Pakistanis smirk that he is more celebrated than he is Pakistan), he has also burnt his bridges, strangely choosing to claim the Kargil defeat as a success, while negating his own achievements on a peaceful resolution in Kashmir.
There is, however, one sphere where Musharraf deserves sympathy, and that is for the rejection of his nomination papers in all the four constituencies where he filed them, 3 immediately, 1 on appeal, by the election commission. While Musharraf, former dictator and “coup-commander” is likely to be prosecuted for a number of democratic violations in court, the application of articles 62-63 by the election commission seems unwarranted.
In fact, the liberal use of the illiberal articles 62-63 has made the EC a wildcard in this election. Those contentious constitutional clauses inserted by General Zia Ul Haq in 1985, say that a candidate must practice Islamic duties, be “sagacious, righteous, non-profligate, honest,” and must never have opposed the “ideology of Pakistan.”
The qualifications are, by definition, subjective, and returning officers have enforced them for the first time in this election, asking candidates to recite Quranic verses by heart, asking how many times they pray, even telling women candidates to stay home and mind their children according to Islamic tenets.
Conversely, the election commission has done little to bar 130 radical Deobandi candidates of the Lashkar-e Jhangvi and other groups now standing under the umbrella Muttahida Deeni Mahaz (MDM) for national and provincial elections. In the MDM’s manifesto, they demand that all public officials appointed be “male Sunni Muslims,” promising a “true Islamic Caliphate” in Pakistan.
The election commission is not the only wildcard in Pakistan’s electoral games – Chief Justice Ifthikar Chaudhry, who has been touring Pakistan to lecture returning officers, is also trying to leave a print on these elections.
The army is rumoured to have played its card this January with the introduction of cleric Dr Tahir Ul Qadri, but is unlikely to show its hand more openly.
Terorist groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan are also trying to influence the election by intimidating women voters, and targeting ANP and PPP leaders for assassination.
Finally, it is Pakistan’s youth who may become the big wildcard this season.
The average Pakistani citizen is 26 years old, half the country’s citizens are under 20, while 2/3rds are below 30. According to a British Council Survey of 18-29-year-olds, most of them are cynical about their political leadership.
The PTI’s Imran Khan is set to carry the youth vote, but the key question is, will they come out to vote at all?
Barring all these wildcards – Pakistan’s election is set for a contest similar to 2007, but one where Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N has the edge, while the PPP faces losses given its poor record in power. The PML-N also has the greater chance of bringing in allies like the JuI and MDM, with many predicting the religious right will do well in provinces like Punjab and KPK.
The real impact of the parliamentary elections in May, however, will be on the power games to be played in Pakistan later this year.
In September, President Zardari’s term is set to expire. If the PPP doesn’t win another term, it is unlikely he will be given another term as president, and after he loses immunity, would have to face the corruption charges that have pitted the chief justice against the PPP all these years.
If on the other hand, the PPP wins, then Zardari will hit the jackpot, and have even more power over the events that follow: Army Chief General Kayani is set to retire in November, and Chief Justice Ifthikar Chaudhry’s term ends in December.
If Zardari is able to keep his seat, he will be able to replace both those figures that have made things so uncomfortable for him, with people of his choice. In Pakistan’s power structure, it is now a fight for who will be the last man standing. That fight will have a domino effect on key issues for the world: the future of Afghanistan, of India-Pakistan ties, of support for militancy in the region, as well as the US’s drone campaign.
As for General Musharraf, it may be time to remember the gambling song that goes: “You’ve got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run.”
Suhasini Haidar is Foreign Affairs Editor, CNN-IBN.