For what is going to be the longest overseas trip by a US President, so far, this century, Donald Trump’s 12-day five-nation visit to Asia is surprisingly low on expectations.
President Trump arrives in Japan on November 5, followed by South Korea, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines before returning on November 14. More so than tangible outcomes, the series of summits will be observed for their tone and temperament.
To begin with, President Trump leaves home embattled and apparently rattled. His brush-fire of tweets as recently as the day of departure was aimed at “Crooked Hillary,”“Crazy Bernie,”“Pocahontas,” the justice department, and the FBI.
A populist leader who seemingly remains on campaign mode will have little room to negotiate strategically on matters of trade. By all accounts, he is also not on speaking terms with the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a Republican. By contrast, all three leaders of Japan, China, and South Korea have had their domestic authority reinforced in recent months.
There are three areas of interest related to this trip: Trade, North Korea, and China.
TradeEarlier this year, the Trump administration scuppered the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a multi-lateral trade agreement involving the US, Japan, and 10 others, negotiated over seven years. For several countries, the cost of domestic market reforms had to be weighed against the benefit of enhanced access to the world’s largest economy.
The remaining eleven could, in theory, proceed without the US. This will, however, require significant reconfiguration and some may wish to hold out for a future US administration to join.
The best-case outcome is a convergent, de-escalating approach from all four actors: The US, China, South Korea, and Japan. It is also the approach most susceptible to re-escalation from coordination failure
President Trump has also attacked the US free trade agreement with Korea (known as Korus) wishing to “end this horrible deal.” The rhetoric was later toned down to “a need for some amendments” instead.
The US approach right now is one of pursuing bilateral, not multi-lateral, deals. It is “America First” -- in a tactical and transactional sense. In the absence of new FTAs, it will mean cooperation on a case-by-case basis.
Just two weeks ago, the prime minister of Singapore was received warmly in Washington, DC. Singapore placed an order of 39 Boeing aircraft worth $14 billion creating an estimated 70,000 American jobs.
Trade “agreements” are not expected to be part of the upcoming trip to either Japan or South Korea.
North KoreaNorth Korea is an immediate security flashpoint and has been flagged as the most pressing issue on this trip. There is no question that China is the only country with the economic leverage to influence North Korea.
However, it’s also clear that China would like a more strategic and measured approach, as would South Korea.
President Trump has chosen belligerent language, referring to the North Korean leader as Rocketman, for example.
There have been small movements in this geo-political formation in the past week. The US Treasury sanctioned a local Chinese bank based on the border with North Korea. CNN reports that US airforce bombers, along with jets from South Korea and Japan conducted a flyover near the Korean peninsula.
The Chinese president exchanged letters with the North Korean leader -- the first time in more than a year.
China also chose this week to end its year-long call for a boycott of South Korean products, which was made in response to Seoul’s decision to deploy American missile defense systems.
The best-case outcome is a convergent, de-escalating approach from all four actors: The US, China, South Korea, and Japan. It is also the approach most susceptible to re-escalation from coordination failure.
ChinaBeyond specific areas of trade and security, this trip should also help build the working relationship between the US and China.
The two countries need to slow-cook a complex relationship that is both cooperative and competitive in different areas.
Half of America’s trade deficit is with China, but so is a large holding of US treasury bonds.
The US needs to press for a fairer playing field for its companies while, at the same time, Chinese consumers make up a growing market for US-made products.
Results from Apple released last week show a 12% growth in sales in Greater China.
Other areas of contention, such as currency management or intellectual property rights, are less relevant now than before. The Financial Times reports that Chinese patenting applications grew 45% in 2016 and is set to overtake the US within two years.
So both sides will need to invest in a multi-faceted relationship that will grow even more intertwined in future.
On this trip, the US commerce secretary will be leading a sizeable trade delegation and there may be specific business deals.
Beyond that, I expect China to provide warmth and hospitality but hold its ground on both North Korea and trade.
A week is a long time in politics. Twelve days is an eternity.
Lutfey Siddiqi is a Visiting Professor-in-Practice at the London School of Economics and Adjunct Professor at the National University of Singapore.