The landslide victory for BJP in the Indian parliamentary elections, led by Narendra Modi, has raised concerns over the future of the otherwise “cordial” relation between the two countries, as Modi, and the BJP through many of it’s leaders, have often spat fire against Bangladesh. On the other hand, Indian foreign policy experts opined that Modi would continue to give special attention to security and economic cooperation with Bangladesh, as was the case with the Congress government.
Over the last five years, India and Bangladesh signed a number of agreements on energy, trade and economic cooperation. India provided a $1bn soft loan to finance some infrastructure projects, and most importantly, addressed a number of security issues that had strained Indo-Bangladesh relations in the past.
Some commentators have argued that the recent visit of Sushma Swaraj, the Indian minister of external affairs (Indian FM), demonstrated quite clearly that there has already been a shift in India’s policy to Bangladesh.
During her visit to Dhaka, the Indian FM indicated very clearly that the Modi government would like to further expand and strengthen bilateral relations with Bangladesh. From the Bangladesh government’s point of view, the Indian foreign minister said all the right things. In particular, her speech at an event organised by the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, was viewed as a clear indication of the desire of the Modi government to expand relations. In that speech, she said: “I come to Bangladesh with a message of friendship and goodwill from the newly elected government of India. I come with the goal of enhancing our relationship and mutual understanding. I come with the belief that the potential of our partnership is vast. I come with the faith that the people of both our countries desire and deserve closer relations and concrete results.”
There have, of course, been other interpretations of the speech. Apart from her meetings with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and Sushma’s counterpart, Mahmud Ali, the Indian FM also met with Begum Khaleda Zia. The BNP appeared to be quite pleased with this meeting. It would therefore seem that both the government as well as the BNP, were pleased with the outcome of the Indian FM’s visit to Dhaka.
While Sushma’s visit is reason for some cautious optimism, we should not ignore the many challenges that have to be confronted and overcome if Indo-Bangladesh relations are to move to a higher level.
Modi’s foreign policy agenda
It is undeniable that the arrival of the BJP leader as the PM of India has set a new tone for India’s domestic and foreign policy. Modi has clearly stated the goals of his new government, including the priority of focusing on a pragmatic growth strategy to get the Indian economy back on track. In order to achieve this goal, expansion of trade and economic cooperation as well as economic diplomacy will be given greater importance in the conduct of Indian foreign policy.
Modi has also underscored the point that if India is to develop itself as a regional power, then it must ensure a friendly and stable neighbourhood. His reaching out to India’s neighbours before engaging with big powers such as the US, China, and the EU, is indicative of the importance Modi attaches to the region. Modi needs to be congratulated for his initiative in inviting the heads of the Saarc member states to his swearing-in ceremony. Equally praise-worthy were the sentiments voiced by the Indian FM about Saarc, Bimstec and regional and sub-regional cooperation during her visit to Dhaka. She said in her speech at BIISS that India “... will pursue the goal of economic integration and interconnectedness through trade, investment, transportation, capacity building, environment friendly practices, and means that promote equitable development in the region.”
In addition to strengthening relations with India’s neighbours, Modi is expected to strengthen India’s economic cooperation with China. Given that over the years Beijing has developed close economic ties with India’s neighbours, becoming an increasingly important foreign investor as well as provider of infrastructure loans to countries across South Asia. Will India welcome China being involved in regional projects in South Asia? Will Modi embrace China’s BCIM initiative?
One of the priorities of Modi’s government in its relations with Bangladesh will be regional connectivity and economic integration in the sub-region covering India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. In this context, strengthening relations with Bangladesh could well be one of the key foreign policy objectives on Modi’s agenda.
Modi’s other objective will be to ensure that Bangladesh’s territory is not used for training, sanctuary, and other operations, by domestic or foreign insurgent and militant groups. On matters of national security, the BJP platform promises a “zero tolerance” on terrorism. The Modi government is therefore likely to seek to revamp India’s intelligence agencies and external cooperation, strengthen the armed forces, and expand defence production in order to better secure India and its borders. In this regard, it will be important for India to continue its high-level of cooperation with Bangladesh.
Challenges
India’s domestic politics and the bureaucratic implementation of the political commitments may pose a challenge for both India and Bangladesh. Modi may have to tackle differences between the central government in Delhi and one or more state governments. The possibility of the RSS creating problems for Modi in regard to Bangladesh can not also be ignored. In the past, there has been ample evidence that although there is a willingness at the political level to strengthen relations through implementation of projects, the bureaucracy can sometimes impede progress.
It will certainly be a challenge for Modi to overcome the growing anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh triggered by India’s failure to ratify the LBA and sign the Teesta Agreement. It is important that India offers a roadmap for its ties with Bangladesh, that reassures the people of Bangladesh and convinces key-stakeholders in Bangladesh that both sides will benefit equally from the expansion of relations.
Both countries must also craft a cultural agenda to develop a better understanding of each other. Indians tend to associate Bangladesh with floods, illegal migration, microcredit, and political instability. The fact that no less a person than Professor Amartya Sen, the Nobel Prize winner, has on more than one occasion said that Bangladesh’s social indicators are far better than those of India, has done very little to alter the distinctly negative image most Indians have of Bangladesh.
Issues Bangladesh wants resolved
From the Bangladeshi side, the primary issue would be the implementation of agreements and MoUs signed between the two governments.
In September 2011, the two sides agreed to resolve the enclave issue by swapping 162 enclaves, giving residents a choice of nationality. People living in the enclaves want to be recognised as citizens of the country inside which these enclaves are located, and they have been agitating for this. Adversely Possessed Land (APL) is another legacy of the partition in 1947 that both governments agreed to resolve. The Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) that addresses these issues is now awaiting ratification by the Indian parliament, as mentioned earlier.
Water issues, and specifically the Teesta agreement, come next in the order of priority. The failure to sign the treaty was a huge disappointment and strained Indo-Bangladesh relations. In order to salvage the situation, the Modi government can now discuss the issue with Mamata Bannerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal, from a position of strength and, in effect, can sign the Teesta agreement with or without her support. Given the emphasis that India is placing on its neighbourhood and regional cooperation, greater cooperation at the sub-regional level would surely help foster better relations and rebuild trust.
In addition to the cooperation on countering insurgency, both the countries need to cooperate on keeping the border areas peaceful. Both governments must work closely to curb smuggling and human trafficking. Another major factor fostering anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh has been border killings. Over 1,000 Bangladesh nationals have been killed on the border by the BSF in a little over a decade. The issue needs to be addressed immediately.
With regard to transit, the issue has to be examined against the infrastructure capacity in Bangladesh covering all modes of transport (roads, railways, waterways, river ports and sea). India, in its own interest, needs to contribute to the modernisation of infrastructure within Bangladesh. During the next prime minister-level visit, the leaders must explore the possibilities of greater investments in significant infrastructure projects in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh wants sub-regional transit rights through India to Nepal and Bhutan from and to Bangladesh in accordance with the 2011 Indo-Bangladesh Framework Agreement on Cooperation and Development. The Modi government should view this as a key opportunity to accelerate growth throughout the sub-region as a whole.
Dhaka has addressed India’s concerns on cross-border security by extending unprecedented cooperation on the issue. Bangladesh has pushed for closer ties despite strong domestic opposition, cracked down on militant groups and signed an extradition treaty that would hand over any insurgent group members hiding in Bangladesh.
Delhi, on the other hand, while it has provided duty free access to Bangladesh, now needs to remove all the non-tariff barriers standing in the way of Bangladesh’s exports to India. However, it is important that both India and Bangladesh now give special attention to promoting Indian investments in Bangladesh. Given Modi’s close links to some of the large business houses in India, he could play an important catalytic role in expanding Indian investments in Bangladesh.
The way forward
Enhanced cooperation with Bangladesh is vital for realising the aims of New Delhi’s Look East policy. A friendly regime in Dhaka allowed the UPA to make some headway in this direction. Now the NDA needs to elevate this relationship to a higher level, where shared benefits and close integration replace mutual suspicion.
For far too long, India has focused on its western border exclusively. However, good relations with Bangladesh – and with Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal through bilateral and multilateral cooperation – can serve as an effective model of development, for that to happen, India must first make ties with Bangladesh irreversible and deliver on pending promises.
Above all, Delhi should realise the enormous benefits of cooperation with Bangladesh. If Pakistan is a problem that India must manage, Bangladesh offers a rare strategic opportunity to transform the geopolitics of the subcontinent. A comprehensive partnership with Dhaka might be the key that will eventually open the door to a productive engagement with Pakistan.
All these factors indicate that India and Bangladesh relations are on the fast track. To augment their bilateral relations, India is keen to establish political, economic, and energy connectivity between the two countries. There is now strong political will to improve relations and take it to a greater height. BJP, which was opposed to some of the issues earlier, may see them in a new perspective given Prime Minister Modi’s thrust on consolidating India’s regional position and the linkage it provides to India’s economic development and security which remains a priority if India is to emerge as a global player.
In her speech in Dhaka, the Indian FM was keen to respond to the concerns of Bangladesh on sharing of the Teesta waters and implementation of the Land Boundary Agreement and its Protocol, when she said: “My Government is committed to addressing all these in a manner that improves the welfare and well being of both our people.”
Modi’s government is expected to be different from the governments of the past 67 years. He believes that India has to focus more on the region and establish stronger ties with its neighbours. While the initial indications are that Modi is genuinely interested in doing exactly this, everyone will want to see to what extent he can translate his vision into concrete measures on the ground.
For Bangladesh and its people, how serious Modi is about improving ties will be not just about the commitments that have been made but on delivering on those commitments.
The governments in both countries need to develop an effective communication strategy along with a comprehensive public diplomacy programme to convince people in both countries about the importance of further strengthening relations between the two countries. An outreach programme, which reaches out to the media, NGOs, civil society, the private sector, students, in sum all sections of the population, is absolutely essential.
The Indian FM also stressed the importance of increasing people to people contacts during her visit. In this connection it is important to relax the visa regime and do away with the lengthy immigration and customs procedures that passengers who travel by train between Dhaka and Kolkata are currently subjected to.
The two prime ministers should meet periodically and closely monitor the implementation of agreements and decisions taken by the two sides. Special attention should be given to implementation of infrastructure projects, including the overhaul of the railway system. A special effort should be made to begin work on the deep-sea port at Sonadia. In order to overcome the reservation of some countries, including India, this project can be implemented through a consortium of interested companies.
It is important that India and Bangladesh work closely together to facilitate some regional projects, in particular, in the energy sector. The two countries should encourage the World Bank, the IFC and the ADB to finance some of these regional infrastructure projects.
Progress in regional integration could be of immense benefit to both countries. In the case of Bangladesh, this could add as much as 2% to its GDP in the next two to three years.