Bangladesh and India have been maintaining relatively stable relations for several years when Congress-led government was in power. Now BJP is at the helm of power. Will this affect relations between the two countries?
Bangladesh and India have maintained stable relations for a long time. There were ups and downs. But the direction of relations was right.
I often face this question. The reasons behind this, according to my opinion, is that the BJP’s election manifesto in the past had emphasised on the need for, in their language, expulsion of “illegal immigrants” from India. This time, the party also mentioned this in its election manifesto.
But what’s more prominent is the statement by Narendra Modi made during the campaign, saying that the “illegal immigrants” of Bangladesh will be driven out of India. Later on, he made another statement where he mentioned that the Hindu immigrants of Bangladesh will receive a cordial welcome in India, but non-Hindus will be driven out.
I prefer to describe these statements as “unfortunate” and the statements were [made to create] “sort of religious divide.” This particular aspect of Modi’s statement is not in conformity with the vast majority of the Indian people who, by and large, believe in communal harmony and secular society. It is also not in conformity with our own philosophy – non-communality.
The second aspect that creates doubt in the minds of many here is the friendly relations between the families of the Congress leadership, mainly the Gandhis, and the family of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. As a result of that, there is also greater understanding between the two parties the families lead in the creation of the right ambiance for strengthening friendly bilateral relations.
Such friendly relations at family and party levels are only supportive in foreign relations. But, they are not determinants in the formulation of relations between the countries.
In realising the national interests of Bangladesh, I think, the significant achievements relate to the signing of the Ganges water sharing treaty. It was signed [in December, 1996] when the Awami League was in power in Bangladesh and a non-congress government in India. This also illustrates, the relations between the two parties are not the determinants of bilateral relations. However, it helps.
The determining factors are: historic, cultural, economic and trade ties and geo-political considerations. Any future government in India will have to proceed keeping these factors under consideration.
Another aspect is, the world of today is getting more inter-dependent, and no state, big or small, can achieve prosperity ignoring cooperation with neighbours.
How do you assess India’s decision for keeping the ratification of the Land Boundary Agreement and signing on sharing Teesta waters, two major thorny issues, on the backburner?
The Land Boundary Agreement has already been signed, but lacks implementation because of failure of ratification by India.
The Teesta Agreements was almost signed [in 2011], but did not happen [due to last minute back step by India].
In addition to LBA and Teesta, the horizon that the two prime ministers [Sheikh Hasina and Manmohan Singh] have opened during their official visits was hardly made useful.
I believe, no relations between any two countries, friendly or unfriendly, can be sustained unless the countries try together.
We have to remain cautious as there is no scope for complacence, and there is no room for inaction. The government of Bangladesh, especially the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will have to remain alert, and will have to take a very active role.
Congress was not a majority in the last parliament, but the BJP and its allies enjoy huge majority in the new parliament. Do you expect the BJP will have courage to ratify the LBA?
It cuts both ways. It will depend on various factors.
Do you hope that Narendra Modi will take initiative to maintain and improve bilateral relations with Bangladesh?
The PM of the former BJP-led government, Atal Behari Vajpayee, had made a lot of contribution in improving relations with Bangladesh. Back then there were no inter-party relations between the parties led by respective prime ministers. So, I believe there is no reason to be afraid of the BJP.
How do you anticipate the scopes to improve trade relations?
Bangladesh’s trade deficit increases due to enormous import from India. It will be impractical to assume the deficit to decrease overnight. It is because of less export from our side as we do not have enough goods in our basket. We also need to keep in mind that many of the imports from India add up to increase capacity here to export to other countries. Many of our essential items are imported from India. If we were to import these items from other countries, our global trade balance might deteriorate further. A country that suffers from global trade deficit, need not be unnecessarily worried about the deficit with its next door neighbours. If we need to import items from far off countries, it may aggravate the global trade deficit. However, we need total removal of non-tariff barriers, elimination of the negative list and other hurdles to increase export to India.
Some people link BJP’s victory with the possible rise of extremist political forces in Bangladesh. Do you see any correlation between the two?
Some people here believe Modi’s taking over of power will provide a resurgence of Hindutva. I hope it does not happen. I hope he will act like a national leader rather than a provincial leader to dispel speculations about him and the party. I do not see any immediate cause-and-effect relationship between the rise of militants in India and the risk of rise of extremist forces in Bangladesh.