Come December, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war will have surpassed the duration of the conflict of the Bangladesh War of Liberation in 1971 against Pakistan. Our Liberation War was brought to a swift end following the intervention of the Indian army, resulting in the humiliating surrender of the 93,000-strong Pakistan army to the Bangladesh-India allied force.
The military success of the Bangladesh-India allied force was the result of certain strategic advantages that it enjoyed over Pakistan, though the latter received considerable support from two superpowers.
First, 90% of the people of Bangladesh supported the freedom fighters of Bangladesh and harboured a deep resentment against the Pakistan army.
Second, the terrain of Bangladesh -- especially during the monsoon -- confined the Pakistan army into their camps and restricted their movements, particularly at night. The condition was exacerbated by their lack of intelligence collection. The morale of the occupiers were at a low level, as the troops had no justified cause to fight a war in a distant land, without a strategic depth.
Third, India shared a contiguous border with Bangladesh and also a friendly and supportive populace, which allowed them a smooth advance to the capital Dhaka.
In contrast to the Pakistan-Bangladesh situation, Ukraine is faced with several mounting challenges.
First, Russia is a superpower with a large stockpile of lethal firepower, including nuclear weapons. It shares large swathes of the border with Ukraine and also enjoys a degree of support from certain sections of Ukrainian people, especially from the provinces that are adjacent to its territory. The Russians also know the Ukrainian terrain like the back of their hands.
Second, it’s hardly imaginable that the West will intervene physically or send their troops to Ukraine to fight against the Russians.
Third, Russia has declared that giving NATO membership to Ukraine will be the last straw on the camel’s back, igniting a world war that the world hasn’t seen. That’s what Russian President Putin has declared unambiguously, and it’s certainly not an empty threat.
Fourth, despite the massive supply of modern weaponry from the West, Ukraine doesn’t have much to take home. The Ukrainian attack on the Kerch strait bridge recently could only partially damage it, but the nature of retaliation by Russia was just a small appetizer of what could follow in the escalation of the war.
Factoring in the different aspects of the war since it began, my thoughts are as follows:
Primarily, it’s the US which has pushed Russia into this war, ignoring Russia’s sensitive strategic concerns. America has an insatiable penchant for engaging in war, mostly on the fictitious ground -- sometimes itself, sometimes through proxy. It has morphed itself into a creature embedded in a culture of never-ending war
As a hyper superpower, the US, in the absence of war, perhaps, slides into lethargical inertia and develops anxiety that the world might assume it has burned out. So, it must invent a new war against an imaginative enemy to display its formidable military superiority. Though I believe many countries consider the US as a perennial and inherent enemy, I don’t think any country will deliberately wish to engage America in a war
The US is also culpable of reneging from its assurance to Russia, at the collapse of the Soviet Union, of not expanding NATO into the Warsaw Pact countries. Indeed, completely negating those promises, NATO kept on expanding, almost knocking on the doors of Russia, with the unwitting assumption that Russia was too weak to challenge
The war has also starkly exposed the west's racist face -- vis-à-vis its response to the decades-long Israeli aggression on the Palestinians. The Ukrainians are white and civilized, and the Palestinians are animals and can be killed with no qualms
In the realms of major strategic and foreign policy issues, it seems Europe has no say of its own and has surrendered to the US pressure, even in the face of their people’s continued economic woes. It also appears that the East European countries have of late ascended to the centre stage of Europe's security decision-making process, relegating Western Europe to a secondary level
The West’s policy towards the Russo-Ukraine war has boomeranged on them, and their ordinary citizens are paying the price. This policy appears to me as nothing less than harakiri. The West has become so myopically obsessed with Ukraine that it has become insensitive and oblivious that this jingoistic grandstanding has pushed the entire globe to the precipice of an unprecedented economic meltdown
The West will also not be immune from the impact. When the plane catches fire, it doesn’t distinguish between first class and economy class
The Opec plus countries, led by Saudi Arabia, are defying the West, which is emboldening Russia as well as fattening its coffer. Whether this move is a harbinger of something serious, only time will say. But a bold line has already been drawn on the sand
Regardless of the western media's cacophony otherwise, the Russian economy hasn't faltered the way the western economy is struggling. Notwithstanding President Biden's warmongering and posturing, his popularity appears to be dwindling at home, and the democrats are up for a drubbing in the midterm elections
On the contrary, Putin has effectively used the war to rally the nation behind him, and he feels stronger than before the onset of the war. He has also uttered the word “peace” more than the US has done so. It has disappeared from the West’s lexicon
The comedian Zelensky looks increasingly pathetic and like a brainless puppet of the West, at the cost of the miseries of the Ukrainian people and the destruction of the country. Regardless of the false narrative woven by the western media trying to portray him as a David standing up to a Goliath, he is likely to go down in history as a destroyer and not as a saviour of his country. He is playing as a pawn of the US in the “Great Game” between the two superpowers
Defeating Russia is a pipe dream. Russia isn't the Japan of 1945, nor Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan, that the West will blast its way to Moscow
When the war ends at a certain period, the West will wash its hands off of Ukraine like a used condom, triggering a mass refugee crisis and descending the country into unmitigated anarchy. The rampant distribution of lethal weapons to the public will also have a consequential effect, engendering an uncontrollable law and order situation. Ukraine is already known as one of the most corrupt nations in the world, and the war will further worsen the situation
In the meantime, China has remained calm, despite provocations, and has adopted a pragmatic policy -- projecting itself as a responsible state in the comity of the nations, without jeopardizing its relationship with Russia and Europe. China has also sought to expose the hypocrisy of the West, particularly of the US's aggressive face in dealing with international issues. It has also stated its intention to mediate between the two warring countries
While the entire world has been affected in the face of the war and the people are suffering its impact, the US defense industries and weapon smugglers are doing brisk business, increasing their profits by manifolds
As mentioned above, the war is likely to hasten the process of America's economic and military decline, and provide China with a window of opportunity for expanding its global reach and an unimpeded rise to the top, by using its soft power
President Putin hasn’t reacted to the West’s purported ridiculing of Russia that it has failed to achieve its objective in Ukraine despite using optimum firepower. I think what Putin is doing is engaging Ukraine in a long war of attrition until it reaches the point of exhaustion or runs out of wherewithal, notwithstanding the huge supply of western military hardware
Being deeply suspicious of the West’s hidden intentions, he hasn’t squandered his ultimate arsenal, and is perhaps preserving them for the existential challenge if it comes.
The West isn’t unaware of it either. The NATO defense ministers conference held in Brussels on October 13, although dished out a statement full of high voltage rhetoric, however, stopped short of issuing a threat of directly intervening in the war by sending their troops.
Upon his entering the Oval Office, President Joe Biden declared that “America is back on the world stage,” which was mostly welcomed by the world. But little did the world know that this would be his way of returning
And now his threat of unleashing a nuclear armageddon has torn all hopes asunder, raising the level of global alarm to an unprecedented height.
Ashraf Ud Doula is a former Secretary and served as Ambassador to several countries.