Our latest opinion poll contains a number of positive indicators for the government, at the start of the new session of parliament.
A year on from the January 5 election, a clear majority of voters, over 70%, have rated the government’s overall performance as successful, particularly in relation to managing the economy.
The AL currently has a 7 point lead over the BNP in terms of stated voted intention and there is evidence of strong public dissatisfaction with the performance of the BNP alliance in presenting itself as an alternative to the government. Around twice as many voters rate the latter’s performance as unsuccessful than those rating it as successful.
Nonetheless, there are still signs that the government’s lead in most respects is not so large that it can afford to be complacent. Public opinion may always change, particularly if the economy undergoes a downturn.
Major underlying public concerns about education and law and order remain significant and the BNP’s both retains its core support and is relativity strong among younger voters and those in rural areas.
The government has to become more responsive to public concerns.
In our survey a year ago, 77% of the public said they considered an election without the BNP would be unacceptable. While acceptance of the government has clearly grown since then, two-fifths of voters still say the next election should be held as soon as possible or within one year.
The public has witnessed fully contested elections take place over the last year in Bhutan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. If the government wishes to consolidate its current lead over the BNP, it may be best advised to negotiate actively to hold the next election sooner rather than later.