Confidence in the banking and stock markets has not fully recovered. Amid this, with the interest rates on National Savings Certificates (Sanchayapatra) remaining temporarily unchanged, savers are once again leaning toward this medium in search of safe investments.
Evidence of this was seen in the sales figures of the first month of the current fiscal year.
In July, net sales of savings certificates reached Tk2,059.47 crore, which is nearly 59% higher than the same period last fiscal year and almost 5 times the net sales of the entire FY26.
Bangladesh Bank's updated report shows that in July 2025, net sales were Tk1,293.48 crore.
Meanwhile, total net sales for the entire FY26 stood at just Tk436 crore.
This means that net sales in a single month were nearly 5 times higher than those of the previous full fiscal year.
On a single-month basis, July’s sales were the highest in four years. Previously, in February 2022, net savings certificate sales reached Tk2,523 crore. Since then, net sales had not crossed Tk2,000 crore in any month.
In fact, net sales were negative for the past three consecutive fiscal years, meaning more money was spent repaying the principal and interest of older certificates than was generated through new sales.
At the end of July, the government's outstanding debt balance through savings certificates rose to Tk336,061.82 crore, up from Tk334,002.35 crore in June.
Net investment in savings certificates is considered government borrowing and is used to cover the budget deficit.
Explaining the sudden surge in interest, economists say that although deposit rates in banks have increased slightly, public confidence in the banking sector has not completely returned.
The stock market has also experienced long-standing uncertainty. Fearing that interest rates on savings certificates might decrease soon, many invested early.
Mustafa K Mujeri, former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, said that a confidence deficit still persists in the banking sector. Amid inflationary pressures, people are eager to protect whatever small savings they manage to retain by turning to savings certificates.
According to Mujeri, there is no risk of losing capital, it offers easy liquidation if needed, and the return rate remains relatively attractive.
Meanwhile, the government’s borrowing target from savings certificates for the current fiscal year is set at Tk8,500 crore.
However, the government has decided to keep the existing interest rates unchanged for the next six months.
The rule regarding the 10% tax deducted at source has also been revised in the new budget; this tax will no longer be considered a final tax and can now be adjusted in the income tax return.
Stakeholders claim that under these circumstances, the rise in savings certificate sales is not merely a shift in investor preference, but also a message for the government.
Over the past few years, desired borrowing targets from this sector were not met, leading to increased reliance on the banking sector to cover deficits.
If investment in savings certificates continues to rise, it will strengthen the government's alternative borrowing sources.
However, given that people's capacity to save has declined during this period of high inflation, it remains to be seen how sustainable this trend will be.