Ahead of the upcoming 13th general election, the Rohingya issue has sparked suspicion among political leaders – hints of the Dr Muhammad Yunus-led interim government’s involvement in new plans regarding the issue have heightened concerns among the country’s major political parties.
In the past 20 days, top leaders from various parties have expressed their doubts to this correspondent, especially after the visit of UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Bangladesh. The growing global interest in Bangladesh, particularly from superpowers, has raised eyebrows in political circles.
Top leaders of various parties say the government has begun using reform as a tool to push the election issue into the background. In this context, they are taking into account the coordinated efforts of influential domestic and foreign actors, National Citizen Party (NCP), and Islamist groups, including the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Leaders of multiple parties told this correspondent that the Rohingya issue was expected to become a major focus by April. The matter is gaining further significance in light of Chief Adviser Yunus's recently concluded visit to China.
Yunus went to China last week, where he held a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Politicians were closely watching this visit, driven by China’s strong interest in Bangladesh.
Political leaders believe that the Rohingya crisis could trigger political conflicts after the Eid season. A prominent intelligence agency source also did not rule out the possibility of direct confrontations in politics.
The issue gained further attention following the March 17 arrests of 10 members of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (Arsa), which is an armed Rohingya separatist group, during their covert meetings in Narayanganj’s Siddhirganj and Mymensingh.
The chief of one party said: “The fact that Arsa leaders were arrested while holding meetings in the heart of the country is undoubtedly concerning. It is also suspicious.”
Before Yunus’s China visit, US Senator Gary Peters arrived in Bangladesh. His official website states that in the current Congress, he serves as the ranking member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which oversees the Department of Homeland Security and is the Senate’s top oversight committee. He also serves on the Senate Appropriations Committee, Senate Armed Services Committee, and Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.
Although his trip officially focused on discussing governance reforms, commission reports, and plans for a free and fair election, political analysts remain cautious about the actual agenda.
Following Peters' visit, Lt Gen Joel B Vowell, the deputy commanding general of the United States Army Pacific, visited Dhaka on March 24-25, with arms sales being a key topic of discussion.
Several party leaders view the visits of US officials to Bangladesh ahead of the chief adviser’s trip to China, along with remarks made by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, as part of a broader global political strategy.
Political leaders question whether any Western-led plan on the Rohingya issue, bypassing China, can succeed.
During a January 31, 2023 seminar at North South University, experts suggested that the Burma Act, passed by the US in December 2022, could escalate conflicts in Myanmar. Security analyst Brig Gen (Retd) M Sakhawat Hussain, now an adviser in the interim government, participated in the seminar, where he argued that Bangladesh’s approach of aligning with China had failed and that a shift towards Western policies was necessary.
Sakhawat could not be reached for comments on Friday.
UN chief António Guterres recently visited Bangladesh and expressed hope that the Rohingya refugees would return to Myanmar by the next Eid. In light of his statement, political leaders stress the need to give greater attention to the issue.
They caution that if the Rohingyas are forcibly repatriated, tensions at the Bangladesh-Myanmar border could escalate. Moreover, bypassing China in seeking a resolution raises concerns about the political wisdom of such a move, they say.
Political leaders suspect that the Rohingya issue could be used to shift the political landscape ahead of the election. The chief adviser has hinted at holding the election between December and June next year, a timeline questioned by BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.
What does BNP say?
BNP National Standing Committee Member Begum Selima Rahman said: “The BNP wishes for the success of the chief adviser’s [China] visit. We want to see positive outcomes. The BNP has always stood for the country’s welfare, and we hope he (Yunus) can achieve something good for Bangladesh.”
When asked whether the BNP prioritized resolving the Rohingya issue or securing Chinese investment, Selima responded that the party sought the overall well-being of the country.
A senior BNP source indicated that if the interim government balanced US interests while relying on China for a Rohingya resolution, a solution might emerge.
The source thought it likely that the interim government's focus on China was closely tied to this issue.