Bangladesh expects its acute power and gas crisis to ease significantly after September 15, but a lasting solution remains years away as the government races to revive domestic exploration, expand LNG infrastructure and reduce an energy dependence that has left industries and power plants vulnerable to every supply disruption.
The immediate rescue plan relies heavily on expensive imported LNG and furnace oil, while most of the projects designed to address the structural crisis -- new gas wells, LNG terminals, exploration programs and renewable energy expansion -- will take years to deliver at scale.
State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Anindya Islam Amit said Thursday that around 88% of the disrupted gas supply system had been restored and the remaining 12% was expected to be recovered soon, paving the way for a marked improvement after September 15.
The crisis intensified after one of Bangladesh’s two floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) broke down on July 21.
Although repairs were completed on August 15, rescheduling LNG cargoes and other operational constraints have prevented supplies from returning to normal.
The two FSRUs can together supply around 1,000-1,100 million cubic feet of regasified LNG per day, but current supply remains at only 700-770 mmcfd.
The disruption has hit industries already struggling with gas shortages and squeezed electricity generation at a time of high demand.
Power supply has faced additional setbacks.
One unit of the Payra power plant is under maintenance, while a Rampal unit is not operating at full capacity.
Adverse weather has also prevented coal stranded in the Bay of Bengal from being lightered to Mongla.
Electricity imports from India’s Adani plant have meanwhile dropped to around 900MW during the day and 1,100MW after evening, compared with the usual 1,500-1,600MW.
The company has attributed the reduction to natural disasters.
To keep electricity flowing, the government has turned to another costly option: maximizing generation from furnace oil-fired plants.
The Bangladesh Power Development Board has been given Tk6,000 crore in interest-free loans to purchase furnace oil, with the government targeting around 4,000MW of generation from such plants.
Anindya said the government had little choice but to procure costly energy in the short term because prolonged shortages could inflict even greater damage on industrial production and the economy.
But the government says the long-term strategy will increasingly focus on gas beneath Bangladesh’s own soil.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman told Parliament on Wednesday that a program to drill and work over 150 wells had been undertaken.
Work on 30 has already been completed, adding around 140 mmcfd to the national grid.
Seven more wells are being drilled and are expected to contribute another 85 mmcfd. The government plans to advance drilling activities for 100 wells by 2028.
It also plans 4,500 line kilometres of 2D seismic surveys and 4,200 square kilometres of 3D surveys to identify new reserves, while state-owned BAPEX is to receive two new drilling rigs.
Yet even with more domestic exploration, LNG will remain central to the government’s strategy for years.
A new floating LNG terminal proposed at Kutubjom in Maheshkhali is targeted to begin supplying around 600 mmcfd by December 2028.
Feasibility assessments are also underway for one or two additional floating terminals near Payra or Mongla, or elsewhere along the southwestern coast.
Energy officials acknowledge that these terminals and their associated infrastructure could take several years to build, offering little immediate relief.
Renewable energy forms another part of the strategy. The government has withdrawn a range of duties and taxes on solar panels, inverters, batteries and related equipment.
It is also offering to purchase surplus rooftop solar electricity at Tk10.15 per unit from households and institutions installing systems within the next six months, with the incentive to remain available for three years.
Experts, however, warn that Bangladesh cannot import its way out of the crisis.
Former BAPEX managing director Mortuza Ahmad Faruk Chishti blamed years of inadequate attention to domestic exploration and extraction, saying both investment and political stability were essential.
Energy expert and geologist Professor Badrul Imam said LNG could help bridge shortages, but Bangladesh needed a clear timeline for reducing import dependence.
“It will be difficult to sustain the economy in the long term by relying on expensive energy,” he said.
The government is now attempting to bring the disparate initiatives under an integrated energy-security plan through 2050, requiring an estimated $70 billion to $80 billion in investment.
Energy Division Secretary Mohammad Saiful Islam said domestic extraction, LNG capacity, deep drilling and exploration would all be expanded under a more coordinated approach.
For households, power plants and industries struggling with the present shortage, the immediate test will come after September 15.
But the larger challenge, ensuring affordable and reliable energy without deepening dependence on costly imports, could take much of the decade to resolve.