As Bangladesh navigates 2026 amid persistent load-shedding and rising fuel costs, the country’s growing dependence on imported energy is drawing concern from policymakers, industry leaders, and ordinary citizens alike.
What was once a domestic gas-driven energy system has evolved into a heavily import-dependent model, with 60–65% of national energy demand now met through imports—exposing Bangladesh to global price shocks and supply disruptions.
Experts warn that, without structural reforms, the current crisis could deepen into a long-term economic challenge.
According to data from the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), domestic natural gas accounted for more than 75% of power generation in 2010.
However, declining reserves and delayed exploration have forced Bangladesh to rely heavily on imported fuels, particularly LNG, coal, and refined petroleum.
Prof Md Iqbal Hossain, a professor of Chemical Engineering at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), believes the roots of the crisis lie in planning failures.
“The present energy crisis is not only technical—it is the result of inadequate long-term master planning. We have gradually moved from energy independence to energy dependence,” he said.
Energy economists note that several countries responded to the Russia–Ukraine war by accelerating renewable energy investments.
On this issue, Dr Shamsul Alam, energy adviser at the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said Pakistan and India acted quickly to diversify their energy mix.
“Pakistan expanded renewable capacity significantly, while India invested heavily in solar infrastructure. Bangladesh must move beyond short-term fixes and adopt long-term strategic planning,” he said.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India has added more than 15 gigawatts of solar capacity annually, making it one of the fastest-growing renewable energy markets globally.
By comparison, Bangladesh’s renewable energy contribution remains around 5–6%, far below its long-term targets.
Industrial operators say unreliable power supply has significantly increased production costs.
Muhammad Ahsanul, a textile factory owner in Gazipur, said irregular gas supply continues to disrupt factory operations.
“Sometimes we receive gas pressure that is too low to run machines efficiently. We have to rely on diesel generators, which increases production costs and reduces competitiveness,” he said.
Similarly, Engr Nasir Uddin, an electrical engineer in the garment sector, emphasized the need for energy-efficient machinery.
“Many factories still use outdated equipment. Upgrading to energy-efficient systems could reduce power consumption by 15–20%, but financial support is needed to make that transition possible.”
The impact of the energy crisis is equally visible at the household level.
Rina Begum, a homemaker in Dhaka, described how frequent outages disrupt daily life.
“Load-shedding happens without warning. Children cannot study properly, and household chores become difficult during long power cuts,” she said.
Abdul Mannan, a small shop owner in Narayanganj, said rising fuel prices have reduced his business profits.
“Electricity bills are higher, and generator fuel costs keep increasing. Customers are also spending less because prices are rising everywhere,” he said.
Public sentiment suggests that energy insecurity is now affecting both economic stability and quality of life.
Experts identify refinery limitations as one of Bangladesh’s key structural challenges.
Currently, Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) processes around 1.5 million metric tons of crude oil annually—far below national demand of about 7 million metric tons.
Prof Md Iqbal Hossain of BUET also highlighted the importance of upgrading refinery complexity.
“Bangladesh’s refinery has a Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of around 5, which limits the types of crude oil that can be processed. India’s refineries operate at NCI levels above 15. Without modernization, Bangladesh will remain dependent on refined fuel imports,” he said.
Private-sector initiatives—such as proposed refineries in Mongla and Narsingdi—are viewed as potential solutions to reduce reliance on imported refined fuels.
Imported LNG now accounts for nearly 30% of Bangladesh’s gas supply.
Although long-term contracts with Qatar and Oman provide some stability, additional demand is often met through volatile spot market purchases.
Dr Hasan Mahmud, an energy economist, warned about the financial risks of excessive LNG dependence.
“Spot market LNG prices can fluctuate dramatically. When global demand rises, Bangladesh faces sudden cost increases, which ultimately translate into higher electricity tariffs,” he said.
The question of importing crude oil from Russia has also emerged as a policy debate.
Prof Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), emphasized the need for careful geopolitical assessment.
“Bangladesh must balance technical feasibility with diplomatic considerations. Energy procurement decisions should align with long-term trade and economic interests,” he said.
Experts also stress that crude compatibility with domestic refineries must be evaluated before entering into long-term supply agreements.
Energy specialists widely agree that improving efficiency is one of the fastest and most cost-effective solutions.
A BUET faculty member and certified energy auditor said energy audits could significantly reduce national demand.
“Industrial energy audits can identify waste and inefficiencies. Many factories can reduce energy consumption by 10–25% without major structural changes,” the expert said.
Countries such as Germany and Japan have demonstrated how systematic efficiency programmes can reduce national energy demand while improving productivity.
Bangladesh has committed to achieving 30% renewable energy by 2030, but financing remains a major barrier.
According to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), renewable infrastructure requires substantial upfront investment.
Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director at CPD, emphasized the role of international financing.
“Access to climate finance and concessional loans is essential. Without international financial support, scaling renewable energy at the required pace will be difficult,” she said.
Energy geologists highlight domestic gas exploration as another critical solution.
A geology professor at University of Dhaka stressed the need for offshore exploration.
“Bangladesh still has unexplored offshore gas blocks. Accelerating exploration activities could reduce long-term import dependence,” the professor said.
Experts across sectors agree that resolving the energy crisis requires coordinated action on multiple fronts.
Short-term solutions
- Improve the efficiency of existing power plants
- Reduce system losses in transmission and distribution
- Introduce nationwide energy audits in industries
- Ensure uninterrupted fuel supply to base-load power plants
Medium-term solutions
- Upgrade refinery infrastructure with higher NCI levels
- Expand LNG storage and supply management systems
- Encourage private investment in refining and renewable projects
- Provide financial incentives for energy-efficient industrial equipment
Long-term solutions
- Achieve 30% renewable energy capacity by 2030
- Expand offshore and onshore gas exploration
- Develop smart grids and advanced energy management systems
- Diversify import sources to reduce geopolitical risk
Energy analysts say Bangladesh is approaching a critical turning point.
Without decisive action, import dependence could continue to rise, placing additional pressure on foreign currency reserves and industrial productivity.
However, with strategic planning, technological investment, and policy reform, the current crisis could also serve as an opportunity to reshape the country’s energy future.
As Prof Md Iqbal Hossain summarized: “Energy security is not just an infrastructure challenge—it is an economic necessity. The decisions we make today will determine Bangladesh’s energy stability for decades.”