The 13th parliamentary election has revealed a striking political reality for the BNP: in dozens of constituencies, the party’s toughest challenge did not come from its traditional rivals, but from within.
Across the country, rebel or independent candidates aligned with the BNP contested in at least 46 constituencies, and their presence significantly altered the electoral equation in a number of high-profile seats.
While the party officially fielded candidates under its “Sheaf of Paddy” symbol in 292 constituencies, internal dissent led to vote splits that proved costly in several areas -- particularly where Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies were strong contenders.
Dhaka-12: The ‘two Saiful’ factor
The impact of rebel candidacies was most visible in Dhaka-12.
In this constituency, the BNP alliance nominee was Saiful Haque of the Revolutionary Workers Party.
However, expelled BNP leader Saiful Alam Nirob entered the race as an independent candidate.
From the beginning of the campaign, political observers and local voters speculated that the division between the two “Saifuls” could benefit the “third Saiful” -- Jamaat-e-Islami’s candidate, Md Saiful Alam.
That is precisely what unfolded.
Jamaat’s Md Saiful Alam won the seat with 53,773 votes, defeating both the BNP alliance candidate and the rebel independent contender.
Local BNP leaders later acknowledged that a split vote played a decisive role.
Saiful Haque told Dhaka Tribune that a section of BNP activists, particularly from affiliated bodies, did not fully support the official nominee.
“If my votes and Nirob’s votes were combined, they would have exceeded the Jamaat candidate’s total,” he said, suggesting that internal fragmentation cost the alliance the seat.
Jhenaidah-4 and beyond
A similar pattern emerged in Jhenaidah-4. BNP candidate Rashed Khan secured 56,224 votes but finished behind both Jamaat’s Abu Talib and an independent candidate.
Abu Talib won comfortably with 105,999 votes, while independent Saiful Islam Firoz polled 77,104.
Election observers noted that the presence of multiple candidates appealing to the same voter base diluted BNP’s support, particularly in closely contested constituencies.
Scale of the rebellion
BNP initially faced rebellion in 117 constituencies after around 190 leaders submitted nomination papers against party decisions.
Despite negotiations and disciplinary measures -- including the expulsion of 53 leaders on January 21 -- rebel candidates ultimately remained in 46 constituencies, numbering nearly 79 individuals.
Out of 299 seats nationwide, BNP faced rebel or independent contenders in 78 constituencies overall.
According to unofficial results, BNP’s official candidates have so far won 50 seats, while rebel candidates secured victory in seven constituencies.
In addition, Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies captured 21 seats in constituencies where BNP votes were divided.
In Khulna division alone, BNP lost eight seats to Jamaat where rebel candidates were present.
High-profile rebel victories
Seven independent rebel candidates emerged victorious in the election.
They include Barrister Rumeen Farhana from Brahmanbaria-2, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Iqbal from Kishoreganj-5, Lutfur Rahman Khan Azad from Tangail-3, Abdul Hannan from Chandpur-4, Atikul Alam Shawon from Comilla-7, Salman Omar Rubel from Mymensingh-1, and Rezwanul Haque from Dinajpur-5.
In Brahmanbaria-2, for example, BNP had left the seat to an alliance partner.
After being denied the party symbol, Rumeen Farhana contested independently and won with 118,547 votes, defeating the alliance-backed candidate.
Similarly, in Comilla-7, where BNP awarded the symbol to an allied party candidate, expelled BNP leader Atikul Alam Shawon ran independently and secured victory.
Seats retained despite pressure
In many constituencies, however, BNP candidates with the Sheaf of Paddy symbol managed to withstand rebel challenges and win decisively.
In 39 seats considered vulnerable due to internal dissent, official BNP nominees ultimately secured victory.
Yet analysts say the broader political impact of the rebellion cannot be ignored.
In at least 12 out of 16 constituencies allocated to alliance partners, rebel candidacies remained active, complicating coordination and weakening unified campaign efforts at the grassroots level.