Last week, dengue cases decreased for the first time during this year’s seasonal outbreak, going from 6,800 in week 40 to 6,445 in week 41.
Dengue cases have tended to peak during September and October in recent years, so it was expected that cases would begin to decrease sometime in October.
But with a high case fatality rate (around one death per 200 cases), and as 2024 rapidly approaches the second highest dengue death toll in Bangladesh’s history, the important question was when exactly cases would begin to decrease.
We may now have that answer.
The highest number of dengue patients recorded in a single day this year came on October 6, with 1,225 patients, and though case numbers are still high (1,186 patients recorded in two of the last three days), that number has not been beaten in the last 10 days.
To give some perspective, the dengue patients per day record has tended to be beaten around once a week during the last three months – so 10 days without a new record may signify that the worst is already behind us.
Decreases in case numbers occurred in several districts, though most importantly in Dhaka, which represents the majority of the country’s dengue cases, and went from 4,070 in week 40 to 3,768 in week 41.
This year’s dengue spike began later than in recent years, with cases increasing significantly in week 31 (July 29 - August 4), whereas last year the spike had begun around week 27 (July 1- July 7).
Though it is still too early to rule out a further dengue spike, the decreases in temperature and rain that come as we approach the winter months will reduce mosquito numbers and the rate at which they bite.