Bangladesh has been witnessing an upward trend in the Covid-19 test positivity rate in recent weeks as many countries across the world grapple with the fast-spreading Omicron variant.
The country recorded a test positivity rate of 3.37% on Monday, hitting a three-month high, but experts say there is no cause for alarm yet as it remains below 5%. In fact, the average transmission rate this month is still among the lowest since the pandemic arrived in Bangladesh in March 2020.
When first cases were detected, the monthly test positivity rate in the country was 3.18% with 51 cases recorded. It had jumped to 21.49% with 98,330 cases detected only three months later in June.
After the first peak in June, the test positivity rate dropped to 12.70% with 50,483 cases detected in September, and it remained around the 10% mark until June 2021.
June last year marked a second peak in the pandemic, with a test positivity rate of 17.04% and 112,718 cases detected in the month. Subsequently, the monthly test positivity rate dropped to 6.88% with 55,293 cases detected in September, and then to 1.53% with just 9,255 cases in December 2021.
In terms of deaths, Bangladesh started with a monthly death rate of 9.80% with five deaths in March 2020. But the rate dropped to 1.21% with 1197 deaths in June, and it was 1.92% with 970 deaths in September, and 1.88% with 91 deaths in December.
In 2021, the death rate was 0.98% with 638 deaths in March, 1.67% with 1884 deaths in June, 2.37% with 1315 deaths in September and 0.98% with 91 deaths in December.
Hence, Bangladesh is currently in a much better position in all Covid metrics than during the previous peaks of the pandemic.
As per the World Health Organisation, a test positivity of over 5% is a key concern for any country.
Compliance with health advisories key to prevention
Despite the fact that the number of daily cases and the test positivity rate are on rise, Bangladesh still remains at minimal risk of Covid-19, at least for now. Compliance with health advisories and regular use of masks can help Bangladesh control the spike.
Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) spokesperson Dr Robed Amin said the transmission rate is a warning for an upcoming wave.
“Given the worldwide situation, with Omicron dealing blows to many countries, we are concerned. One important reason for our concern is that we share a border with India. If the Omicron situation gets worse in India, it may turn worse in Bangladesh too. We are preparing for that,” he said.
Noted virologist and a member of the National Technical Advisory Committee on Covid-19 Dr Nazrul Islam said the rising test positivity rate indicates Bangladesh may see a fresh wave in next few months.
“The rate may cross 5% within a month or two, and this is why Bangladesh must prepare itself for a possible blow,” he said.
He suggested that the government immediately manage adequate oxygen for hospitals, and also urged the people to maintain health advisories, including wearing masks and regularly washing hands.
“Vaccination will definitely provide some protection, but the key is prevention through maintaining the health advisories,” he added.