At a time when the people of Bangladesh are hoping that the ongoing lockdown will be lifted and the dangers of coronavirus pandemic will fade away, the government has expressed fears that the situation might even turn for the worst in the coming month of May.
The Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) has placed two predictions, terming the first to be conservative where some 48,000-50,000 people may be infected and 800-1,000 of them might die by May 31.
The second prediction fears the worst where cases of infections may rise to around 100,000.
DGHS Director General Professor Dr Abul Kalam Azad unveiled the two predictions at a virtual inter-ministerial meeting on April 21, which was chaired by Health Minister Zahid Maleque and attended by ministers and high officials from concerned ministries.
Dr Kalam also said the predictions on the coronavirus scenario in Bangladesh for the month of May were drafted by experts under the supervision of the DGHS.
According to a summary of the meeting, Dr Kalam said several factors, such as the present state of the lockdown, awareness, and social distancing measures, were considered while preparing the predictions.
“We are now preparing to ensure treatment for the estimated number of patients of the pandemic as per the predictions,” he told the meeting.
How the predictions were made
Despite several attempts, Dhaka Tribune could not reach DGHS DG Dr Abul Kalam Azad over the phone for further details on the two predictions.
However, while talking to Dhaka Tribune, Health Ministry’s Medical Education and Family Welfare Division Secretary Md Ali Noor said: “The projection that some 48,000-50,000 people may be infected and 800-1,000 people may die by May 31, has been compiled based on the current trend of the outbreak in Bangladesh.
“At the same time, the second projection regarding Bangladesh was formed as per the ongoing global trend considering reports by the World Health Organization (WHO),” he added.
Md Ali Noor, who was also present at the inter-ministerial meeting on April 21, also said: “The DGHS placed both predictions at the meeting to enhance the country’s preparation to tackle the situation.
“We have to be prepared to our best to tackle the upcoming situation,” he added.
“We are strengthening our preparations as per the predictions. We are managing resources as per the requirement,” said Habibur Rahman Khan, additional secretary of Health Service division.
How does the government plan to tackle the situation?
Health Minister Zahid Maleque told the inter-ministerial meeting that private hospitals have also been included under the government’s initiative to make 6,000 beds ready for treating Covid-19 patients.
Besides, the government has been rushing to immediately recruit 2,000 doctors and 6,000 nurses.
Despite the government’s move to resume production in factories and agriculture as well as its supply chain amid the public holidays, all educational institutes and places of public gatherings, such as transport stations and shopping malls, will remain closed.
Experts believe that the government may extend the public holidays also, which has been fixed till May 5.
However, officials and experts say that although the projections were made ready by mid-April, the government’s preparation for the upcoming situation remains inadequate.
Till now, the government has not been able to determine a proper treatment system for Covid-19 patients and authorities could not ensure protection of healthcare professionals, including doctors and nurses, from the deadly virus.
At the same time, doubts remain whether the country has enough trained doctors to maintain Intensive Care Units (ICU), which might become crucial for treating critical Covid-19 patients.
What do experts think of the situation?
Dr Tarek Hossain a former program coordinator at UNICEF in Bangladesh, said: “Bangladesh is now at the final stage, so we have to focus on hospital preparation.
“It is a matter of sorrow that we failed to stop the community transmission for some reason,” he told Dhaka Tribune.
“I think now we have to prepare more hospitals with sufficient oxygen facilities for Covid-19 patients, at the same time we need more health workers for continuous medical care at this stage,” he added.
Professor Dr Shah Monir Hossain, a former DGHS director general who now works as a health expert, told Dhaka Tribune: “I am closely working with a Covid-19 projection research in Bangladesh. In this type of epidemiological data-based research, the results are assumptions based on several factors.
“However, we are very much concerned about the country’s preparation as the Covid-19 scenario may turn for the worse in May,” he added.
‘I think, we need three types of measures to stop the coronavirus transmission,” Professor Monir Hossain said.
“First of all, we have to strictly maintain social distancing and personal health safety measures. Secondly, the Health Ministry has to prepare a sufficient number of isolation beds, ventilators, and ICU beds for the patients. Thirdly, we have to test more and more to stop the transmission,” he told.
According to the World Health Organization latest guidelines, 20% of the infected patients required hospital care.
Dr Monir also said on an average, 80% of Covid-19 patients can receive treatment at home but the rest would require hospitalization.
“I think we still do not have sufficient ICU beds, ventilators, and isolation beds for the 20% patients.”
“WHO said there are 4 types of patients; Mild, Moderate, Severe, and Critical. We have to prepare more facilities for the severe and critical patients within May,” he commented.