The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the resulting global economic disruptions could push an estimated 1.2 million more people in Bangladesh into poverty, according to a new UNICEF analysis released on Thursday.
The report highlights that rising prices of staple foods, including rice, lentils, edible oil, vegetables, fish and poultry, are placing growing pressure on household budgets in Bangladesh.
It further notes that the broader consequences of the conflict are limiting families' access to nutritious food, healthcare, education and child protection services, potentially undermining children's physical and cognitive development.
The report, titled "The Impact of the War in the Middle East on Children in Monetarily Poor Households," examines data from more than 167 countries and warns that escalating hostilities, rising food and energy prices, and shipping disruptions, including those linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are severely undermining household purchasing power and threatening years of global development gains.
The analysis also reports that up to 23.4 million additional children worldwide may fall into monetary poverty by the end of 2026 if the crisis continues.
According to the analysis, children living in the poorest households are bearing the brunt of the economic fallout as families struggle to afford food, education, healthcare and other essential services.
"Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including children far beyond the region," said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.
"The longer this continues, the worse the consequences will be. Rapidly rising costs are making food and education unaffordable for many families. For children already living in poverty, these shocks deepen deprivation and can cause harm that lasts a lifetime," she said.
The report presents two possible scenarios. Under an adverse scenario, representing a moderate economic shock, an additional 18.3 million children could fall into monetary poverty. In a severe scenario that assumes prolonged disruptions to prices and economic activity, the number could rise to 23.4 million children.
UNICEF said child monetary poverty is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks. Rising food and fuel costs, coupled with limited fiscal space in many countries, are directly reducing families' ability to meet their basic needs.
The analysis found that Asia and Africa would account for around 80% of the projected global increase in child monetary poverty, reflecting both high baseline poverty levels and greater vulnerability to external economic shocks.
UNICEF cited several countries where the economic consequences of the conflict are already being felt.
In Somalia, fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled within days of the escalation, driving up the cost of food, water, transport and humanitarian assistance amid an ongoing malnutrition crisis.
In Ethiopia, disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have increased diesel prices by 31%, while humanitarian fuel costs have risen by 50–70%, making it more difficult to deliver aid to remote communities.
In Nigeria, where low-income households spend between 60% and 70% of their income on food and transport, even modest price increases are significantly reducing purchasing power and worsening poverty.
The report warns that without timely and targeted policy interventions, the current crisis could reverse years of progress in reducing child poverty, widen inequality and make recovery increasingly difficult for vulnerable families.
UNICEF urged national governments, donor countries and international financial institutions to take immediate action to protect children from the worst impacts of the crisis.
The agency called for safeguarding funding for essential services such as health, nutrition, education and child protection; expanding child-sensitive social protection programmes, including cash transfers; ensuring uninterrupted access to affordable essential goods and services; creating greater fiscal space through measures such as debt-service suspension or restructuring where appropriate; and strengthening child-focused preparedness systems to respond rapidly to future economic shocks.
"This crisis is putting the lives and futures of children at risk. If the world fails to act swiftly, the combined effects of conflict, economic instability and rising costs will push millions of children into deeper poverty," Russell said. "We could see hard-earned development gains unravel."