Bangladesh and India are approaching a critical juncture in their water-sharing relationship as the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty nears expiry in 2026 amid rising climate-driven floods and drought risks across South Asia.
At the heart of the issue are shared rivers that sustain agriculture, ecology and livelihoods for millions in Bangladesh, while also serving as a persistent source of geopolitical concern between the two neighbors.
Bangladesh and India share 54 transboundary rivers, forming part of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin. For downstream Bangladesh, this geography creates deep dependence on upstream flows, making transboundary water governance a key strategic concern.
Upstream interventions and seasonal water stress
For decades, concerns in Bangladesh have focused on upstream dams, barrages and diversion projects in India. During the dry season, reduced river flow disrupts irrigation, agriculture, fisheries and river navigation. In the monsoon, sudden surges of water have often intensified downstream flooding.
The Farakka Barrage, commissioned in 1975 in India’s West Bengal, remains one of the most contentious symbols of the dispute. Built to divert water towards the Hooghly River to improve navigability of Kolkata Port, it has long been blamed in Bangladesh for reduced dry-season flow in the Ganges, increased salinity intrusion and ecological stress in the southwest region.
Although Bangladesh and India signed the 30-year Ganges Water Sharing Treaty in 1996, the agreement is set to expire in 2026, making renegotiation a pressing diplomatic priority.
Climate change intensifying risks
Experts say the challenge is no longer only political but increasingly shaped by climate change and hydrological uncertainty.
Erratic monsoon patterns, intense rainfall events and accelerated Himalayan glacier melt are increasing the likelihood of both droughts and extreme flooding across the region.
Recent floods in Bangladesh’s eastern districts in 2024, particularly in Feni, Comilla and Noakhali, renewed debate over upstream water management and coordination mechanisms. Allegations that water release from India’s Dumbur reservoir in Tripura worsened flooding were denied by Indian authorities, who attributed the disaster to extreme rainfall and natural runoff.
The episode underscored growing concerns over the lack of real-time data sharing and coordinated flood forecasting between the two countries.
Treaty uncertainty and stalled negotiations
The impending expiry of the Ganges treaty is widely viewed as a key test of bilateral water diplomacy. Analysts say the agreement, while historically significant, may no longer reflect current hydrological realities driven by climate change and rising water demand.
Meanwhile, negotiations over the Teesta water-sharing agreement remain stalled, largely due to internal political considerations within India, particularly opposition from West Bengal.
International relations scholar Professor Imtiaz Ahmed has argued that water in South Asia is increasingly viewed as a strategic resource, with asymmetry between upstream and downstream states contributing to a persistent trust deficit.
Domestic governance challenges in Bangladesh
While upstream management remains central to the debate, experts say Bangladesh also faces internal governance challenges in river management.
Sharif Jamil, member secretary of Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA), said Bangladesh’s long-standing reliance on embankments, polders and sluice gates has altered natural river dynamics.
“Initially, these structures supported agricultural expansion and settlement,” he said. “However, over time, they disrupted sediment flow, reduced water retention capacity and contributed to river congestion and encroachment.”
He added that long-term resilience in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta requires restoring more natural river systems alongside improved basin-wide planning.
He also cautioned that unilateral upstream interventions continue to significantly affect Bangladesh’s wetlands, farmland and delta ecosystems.
Institutional limitations
The Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972, was intended to institutionalize cooperation between Bangladesh and India on shared rivers. However, critics say it has struggled to deliver lasting solutions, particularly on Teesta water sharing and real-time flood forecasting.
Globally, water governance frameworks increasingly emphasize principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the obligation to avoid causing significant harm to downstream states. While India is not a signatory to the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention, experts say these norms remain relevant for regional stability.
Outlook
The stakes are rising for both countries. Seasonal water scarcity and intensified monsoon flooding threaten food security, rural livelihoods and economic resilience in Bangladesh.
Without stronger transparency, real-time data sharing and basin-wide cooperation, analysts warn that water risks becoming a deeper source of bilateral tension.
Yet shared rivers also present an opportunity. If managed cooperatively, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna system could serve as a foundation for climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and regional trust-building.
For Bangladesh and India, the challenge is not the absence of cooperation frameworks, but whether political will can match the urgency of hydrological change before the next crisis unfolds.