Ahead of the upcoming 13th National Parliamentary Election, a new public opinion survey has been released by an organization named Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD).
Based on the opinions of around 41,500 respondents, the survey indicates that the BNP-led alliance could win approximately 208 seats in the election. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance may secure 46 seats. In addition, the Jatiya Party is projected to win three seats, other parties four seats, and independent candidates 17 seats.
The survey findings were unveiled on Monday afternoon at the 3D Seminar Hall of the Krishibid Institution in the capital. EASD claimed that this survey has the largest sample size among all opinion polls conducted so far in connection with the upcoming election.
The survey results were presented by EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Hayder Talukdar. He said the survey was conducted across all 300 parliamentary constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) method. Data from a total of 41,500 respondents were collected through the ‘Kobo Toolbox’ digital platform. From January 18 to January 31, 150 trained data collectors carried out fieldwork. To reflect the country’s diverse demographic and regional perspectives, a total of 2,766 PSUs nationwide were included. From each PSU, 15 households were selected systematically, and one eligible respondent from each household was interviewed to ensure methodical and unbiased data collection. Unions were considered clusters for rural areas, while wards were used as clusters for urban areas, ensuring equal representation of both rural and urban populations.
Among the 41,500 respondents, 26,560 were men (64%) and 14,922 were women (36%). Young voters aged between 18 and 30 accounted for 37.2% of participants. Those aged 31–50 constituted 45.2% of respondents, with 27.5% aged 31–40 and 17.7% aged 41–50.
The highest proportion of respondents—21.9%—were businesspeople. Among them, 5% were large and medium-scale business owners, while 16.9% were small traders. Participants from agriculture and rural labour sectors accounted for 13.2%. Meanwhile, 19.1% were engaged in household and informal sectors, and students made up 14.5% of respondents.
Findings
According to the EASD survey, the majority of voters in Bangladesh prefer the BNP. A total of 66.3% of respondents expressed their intention to vote for the BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9% support. The NCP received 1.7% support. Among others, the Jatiya Party secured 4% support, while independent candidates accounted for 2.6%.
The survey found that BNP enjoys particularly strong support among women voters, with 71.1% expressing support for the party. The BNP-led alliance received its highest support in Chittagong (76.8%) and Sylhet (75.6%). However, the Jamaat-led alliance showed strong positions in Barishal (17.8%) and Khulna (18.6%). In Rangpur, the Jatiya Party received support from 3% of voters.
The survey also revealed that a significant portion of voters who previously supported the Awami League are now in favour of political change. Shamim Hayder Talukdar said that 80% of former Awami League voters expressed an intention to vote for the BNP in the upcoming election. At the same time, 15% of former Awami League voters said they would support Jamaat-e-Islami, while the remaining 5% indicated support for other political parties.
According to the survey, 66.4% of respondents believe that the BNP-led alliance will be able to form the next government, and 66.3% believe that BNP candidates will win in their respective constituencies. Overall, the survey strongly reflects public political aspirations and expectations of significant change in favour of the BNP.
Based on the survey results, the BNP-led alliance is projected to secure the highest number of seats, with approximately 208 seats. The Jamaat-led alliance may win 46 seats, while the Jatiya Party is projected to secure three seats, other parties four seats, and independent candidates 17 seats. Additionally, 22 constituencies are expected to witness closely contested races.
Regarding the next prime minister, 68% of respondents supported BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman. Jamaat Ameer Shafiqur Rahman received support from 14%, while 2% supported NCP Convener Nahid Islam. A further 16% of respondents declined to express an opinion.
The event was chaired by EASD Adviser Kazi Saifuddin Bennoor. Following the presentation of the survey findings, a panel discussion was held with participation from Professor Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir of the University of Dhaka’s Department of Development Studies; ASM Amanullah, Vice-Chancellor of the National University; Shamsul Alam Selim, Chair of the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University; Professor Nahreen I Khan of the same university’s Department of Geography and Environment; Associate Professor Taufique Joarder of the National University of Singapore; and former Electoral System Reform Commission member Mir Nadia Nivin.