A reshuffling of President Barack Obama’s staff looks all but certain after Tuesday’s congressional elections, which are likely to bring humbling losses to his Democratic party and could add to pressure on him to reboot his presidency.
Forecasters say that Republicans, who have made Obama’s unpopularity a top issue in the elections, are in a strong position to capture the six seats they need to take over the Senate from Democrats. They are also expected to expand their majority in the House of Representatives.
But current and former White House aides say that even if those predictions prove correct, Obama will likely resist calls to clean house for the final two years of his administration, a departure from the dramatic makeovers quickly ordered by many of his predecessors after similar setbacks at the ballot box.
Even slow-motion staff turnover could add some new talent to an inner circle that has been criticized as too insular. But it remains to be seen whether new blood would be enough to help a diminished president overcome Washington gridlock and push through new initiatives to burnish his legacy.
At the same time, there are doubts whether Obama will respond with what many see as an even more critical remedy: altering his cloistered leadership style to deal with the new reality on Capitol Hill and cascading crises abroad.
The president, known for his cautious “no-drama Obama” persona, may be reluctant to make a fundamental course change for the last quarter of his tenure, according to people inside and outside the administration.
“There will always be a staff change here or there,” particularly among people who have served for a long time, said Jay Carney, Obama’s former press secretary. But he added, “It’s just not his style to do it ... I wouldn’t expect a big change.”
But both supporters and critics say recent stumbles in the handling of the Ebola crisis and a halting strategy against Islamic State underscore the need for major changes within the White House “bubble,” where policy decisions have become concentrated to a degree seen as almost unprecedented.
“He should consider reviving the ‘team of rivals’ approach,” said Jane Harman, a former California congresswoman regularly consulted by the White House. “Having people with different opinions in the room, that would be very helpful.”
Loyal to his loyalists
However, Obama, famously loyal to those who have been loyal to him, has shown an aversion to firing senior staffers. Most of those who have left since he took office went voluntarily.
That may still be the case even as the predicted midterm losses sink in with his West Wing team, many of whom are exhausted after nearly six years of governing.
But there is another, albeit less likely, scenario. With lame-duck status looming, Obama – his approval ratings languishing in the low 40-percent range - may calculate that he has little to lose by making sweeping staff changes, which could send a message that he is serious about making a fresh start, one former insider said.
White House chief of staff Denis McDonough has already quietly asked senior aides to tell him if they plan to stay onboard for Obama’s final two years in office.
A longtime Obama confidant, McDonough himself is the object of growing speculation. His departure would suggest Obama is doing more than just tinkering with the makeup of his staff.
McDonough has made clear he prefers to stay and Obama won’t send him packing, people close to the president say. But no one is ruling out that McDonough could decide on his own to leave.
Obama may be mindful that the last time he revamped his White House staff, after the “shellacking” suffered in the 2010 midterms, the results were far from glowing. Former banker Bill Daley, brought in for a more pro-business approach but never able to penetrate the Obama inner circle, was pushed out as chief of staff after little more than a year.