Student protesters galvanized Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement with their energy and ideological zeal, bringing tens of thousands of people on to the streets in a show of defiance against Beijing.
People young and old speak of a “new era” of civil disobedience for an already well-established movement, with young and politically engaged activists more willing to stand up for what they believe to be right.
As events of the last 12 days prove, however, sustaining momentum is difficult, and whatever success protesters had in pressuring the government by disrupting city life, they will always come up against a formidable foe - mainland China.
Protest numbers have dwindled markedly to a few hundred people at times, and the focus for pro-democracy activists has switched to talks scheduled for Friday with key officials in the Hong Kong administration.
Already leaders among students and the “Occupy” movement, as well as tacticians in the city’s pro-democracy camp, say they are doubtful of an outcome that will pacify radical and moderate demonstrators, possibly paving the way for another crackdown.
Protesters’ core demands, namely full democracy in Hong Kong including an open nomination process for elections for the city’s next leader in 2017, are not even on the agenda.
“After the talks there will likely be another crisis,” said pro-democracy lawmaker Lee Cheuk-yan, who has helped advise the students behind the scenes.
“You don’t know what each party will do and what will trigger a crackdown or a backdown. It’s very difficult to say.”
The sticking point is China, which has the final say on what concessions, if any, it might grant Hong Kong. So far, all the signs point to it not budging from an Aug. 31 decision to restrict nominations for the 2017 poll to candidates who get majority backing from a committee stacked with pro-Beijing loyalists.
What next?
That begs the question of what next for a movement that has lost much of its popular support as Hong Kong citizens count the cost of the disruption it has caused.
“Crisis resolution is important right now,” said Kuan Hsin-chi, emeritus professor of politics at Hong Kong’s Chinese University who has been close to protest leaders.
“It’s not the time for getting concrete reform policies or principles.”
A forced police clearance carries the risk of stoking fresh retaliatory blockades, while protest leaders have refused to withdraw given that their demands for full democracy and for Hong Kong leader Leung Chun-ying to quit have not been met.
“If the discussions do not yield the results we want, we will continue the occupation,” said Lester Shum of the Hong Kong Federation of Students.
The turmoil presented the Chinese leadership with one of its biggest political challenges since it crushed pro-democracy protests in and around Tiananmen Square in 1989.