Pakistani officials threatened to expel Afghanistan’s Taliban from bases in Pakistan if they did not join peace talks this month, but the militants rebuffed their traditional patron, two officials said, casting doubt on how much influence Islamabad retains over them.
After the secret meetings with Pakistani officials about two weeks ago, the Taliban’s Supreme Council met at an undisclosed location and voted to reject the talks scheduled for early March with the Afghan government, according to a council member.
Instead, the insurgents are now pouring back into Afghanistan for what they say will be a fierce spring offensive to be launched soon.
Pakistan’s influence over the insurgents is the lynchpin to the peace plan developed over last few months by Afghanistan, Pakistan, the US and China to bring an end to the 15-year-old war in Afghanistan.
A Pakistani official in Islamabad said the Taliban’s recent success on the battlefield inside Afghanistan had changed the equation.
“They no longer need their Pakistan bases in the same way, so if Pakistan threatens to expel them, it does not have the same effect,” said the official, a retired military officer close to the talks.
The insurgents have won new zones of influence - if not outright control - from Afghan security forces since the US and its allies pulled most combat troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014, Afghan and Western officials acknowledge.
Nafees Zakaria, a spokesman for Pakistan’s Foreign Office, said he had no knowledge of meetings with the Taliban but added: “We usually don’t know who has met with whom” in the sensitive and high-level peace initiative.
In Kabul, however, members of the Afghan government were sceptical about Pakistan’s assertions.
“Pakistan’s honesty and sincerity with regard to the Afghan peace process has always been a question,” said an Afghan cabinet member, echoing the sentiment of several officials interviewed there.
Pakistan’s military has long been accused of fostering the Taliban as a way of pursuing regional rivalry with India.
Pakistani officials, however, deny the charge and insist the government and military recognise that Afghanistan’s war threatens their own security .
‘Their dream’
A member of the Taliban’s leadership council, or Shura, whose members are mostly based in Pakistan and Afghanistan but also travel between Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, said rebel representatives met in Islamabad with Pakistani officials a little more than two weeks ago.
“They have asked our representatives to bring more decision-making people to the next meeting ... to the meeting with US and Afghan officials. This is their dream, but they will not be able to see our senior commanders,” the Taliban council member said.
The Taliban source had knowledge of, but did not attend, the meeting with Pakistani officials in Islamabad. He was at the subsequent Taliban council meeting to decide on whether to join the peace talks.
The pro-talks camp largely comprised supporters of nominal Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, believed to be hiding in Pakistan after being shot in a leadership dispute last year and rumoured killed, and his chief rival, Mullah Mohammad Rasoul, who is believed to be in Afghanistan.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid declined to comment on any meetings with Pakistani representatives. He confirmed the Leadership Council meeting but would not give details.