With Donald Trump continuing to outpace all rivals at the primaries, some Republican leaders and party insiders are considering a desperate, rear-guard effort to keep the polarising candidate from winning the party’s nomination-- a brokered convention.
But to get there, they need to keep Trump from amassing an outright majority of delegates. Only then will they be able to pick a new nominee.
It’s a long shot, but it could work — provided the party is willing to accept the substantial short- and long-term risks.
For instance, if Trump feels spurned by the party, he could mount a large independent campaign to steer support from the Republican nominee. Meanwhile his supporters, having had their millions of votes effectively nullified by a few thousand insiders, could be lost to the Republicans for years to come.
What is it?
A brokered convention, alternately called contested convention, is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or superdelegates) prior to the first vote for a political party’s presidential candidate at its nominating convention. Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates’ votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse trading, and additional re-votes. In this circumstance, all pledged delegates from different states are released and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this extra privilege extended to the delegates will result in a re-vote yielding a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.
Could this happen this year?
This year is something different. Republican voters are flocking to a candidate who is anathema to many party insiders. More to the point, it looks like Trump may struggle to get an outright majority of delegates, which is what makes a brokered convention possible. The math is far from certain, but if Marco Rubio can beat Trump in Florida, John Kasich can beat him in Ohio, and Ted Cruz can pick up some more Plains states, then Trump might come up short of a majority of delegates, despite being well ahead of all his rivals. And when no candidate can claim a majority, convention delegates get a lot more latitude to follow their own personal preferences rather than the voters’ choice. This is what a brokered convention is all about.
How does a brokered convention actually work?
Keep your eyes on the delegates; that’s the secret to understanding a brokered convention. It’s vital to remember that these delegates are real people with real ties to the Republican party machinery. Members of the GOP state chapters will choose their own 50 people and send them off with orders to vote for any candidate the chapter prefers at the start of the Convention — but only at the start. Most state delegates have this same responsibility. They are told how to vote on the first ballot, and are left free after that. So if there’s no winner on the first ballot — no candidate with a majority of the votes — predictability quickly evaporates. Suddenly, many delegates are free to vote for whomever they like, even people who are not even contesting. After that, the dealing begins. It may take some time but after a failed first ballot the delegates have no choice but to talk and vote and negotiate until some person captures a decisive, majority share.