Super Tuesday is the big gulp moment for any US presidential candidate who makes it that far. It’s the biggest day of competition in American democracy except for Election Day itself. It’s super nail-bitey, super expensive and often super-clarifying - the killer and maker of dreams.
So will it set everything straight in the chaotic presidential race?
Maybe. Quite possibly not.
The lineup
Both parties are holding contests Tuesday in these states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. As well, Republicans vote in Alaska and Democrats in Colorado. Democrats also have a contest in American Samoa and for Democrats Abroad.
A transition
Until now, it was ephemeral. Who’s doing better and worse than expected? Who’s rising and falling? Who’s got momentum? It’s mainly about the number of delegates now - the inexorable grind of arithmetic. Until now, voters in four states have picked not much more than a sliver of the delegates who are needed to clinch the party nominations. That changes overnight, with each party holding contests in 11 states. Democrats also vote in American Samoa.Republicans will allocate 595 delegates from the results of Super Tuesday, nearly half of the 1,237 needed for the nomination. Democrats will allocate 865, more than one-third of the necessary 2,383.
What’s the score?
3-1 for Trump and Clinton. He won New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. She won Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina. Republican Ted Cruz won Iowa. Sanders won New Hampshire.
Momentum still counts
As enormous as the prize is on Tuesday, no one candidate can win their party’s nomination on the night. The delegate trove is proportional in each party, and delegates will be divvied up according to how well each contender does. That’s an oversimplification of an arcane process, but the bottom line is that a strong second place in a particular state can be worth almost as many delegates as a victory. So the perception of who’s making headway still matters. A candidate on the move can attract more money, national attention and voter interest.
At least for a few more weeks.
A series of winner-take-all Republican primaries is coming, none bigger than Florida on March 15, where a cache of 99 delegates is at stake and Rubio will be bidding furiously for a home-state victory against Trump, a part-time resident who got a head start on organising there.
Texas and the south
The South bid for more influence in this campaign by adding states to its Super Tuesday roster, naming this subset the SEC primary in a nod to the Southeastern Conference of college sports. Clinton demonstrated her pull with black voters in South Carolina, suggesting she may do well in other Southern states with significant black populations. The biggest Super Tuesday state overall is Texas, where Senator Cruz has a home-state advantage built on prime endorsements from the governor down the political chain and a veritable army of some 27,000 volunteers. Everything in politics is double-edged, though. If Trump’s rebel yell attracts enough support to make him the winner or even a close second, Cruz will face sharp questions about his viability.