Before Donald Trump’s put-downs and the stumbles in presidential debates, and before the profound frustration of voters became so unmistakably apparent, Jeb Bush appeared to be best positioned to win back the White House for Republicans in 2016.
He amassed a $150m war chest in 2015, surrounded himself with some of the best minds in the party, had a famous last name and attracted the support of the party establishment.
Now with his polling in single digits, strategists say his presidential ambitions may rest in large measure on the outcome of Saturday’s South Carolina Republican primary. He needs to do well to show he can perform strongly in the Super Tuesday primaries on March 1, when a collection of mostly southern states will vote.
The Bush campaign dismisses what they see as a rush to write him off, saying he plans to go to Nevada for campaigning on Sunday and will participate in a debate in Houston on Thursday. To be sure Bush has shown signs of momentum in recent weeks, with stronger performances in debates where he struggled earlier in the campaign and a better finish than Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, his fiercest rival for the Republican establishment vote, in the New Hampshire primary..
From the start, they said, Bush appeared to misjudge the mood of the Republican base. In December 2014, for instance, Bush gathered his senior aides and a small group of national political operatives for a meeting in Miami to talk about his coming candidacy. A survey to gauge the national mood of the party was dismissed by Bush and his aides as unnecessary. Such polling, a participant said, would have made clear to Bush the rebellious sentiment of the conservative base of the party.
‘Low energy’
Viewing Trump as a summer fad who would fade given his outrageous comments, the campaign was slow to respond to the billionaire when he first blasted Bush last August as “low-energy.” Bush maintained his above-the-fray strategy and focused on his policy proposals instead of mixing it up with Trump.
Trump relentlessly and bluntly attacked Bush in speeches and on Twitter, portraying him as tired, weak and out of touch with the party. Trump has mentioned Bush on Twitter hundreds of times, far more than any other Republican candidate.
When the “low energy” attacks on Bush started to take hold and his poll numbers began dropping, he went out of his way to insist he had plenty of energy to be president, talking of working 16-hour days, putting in feistier appearances on the stump and hitting back at Trump hard.
Behind the scenes, though, donors said they fretted that too much time had gone by before he took the problem seriously.
Some confidants of the former Florida governor seethed for weeks at Trump’s taunts and urged the campaign to shift to a more aggressive posture.
“Defining him as weak denied him the ability to make the argument that by resume, competence and experience he was the most fit to command,” said Schmidt.
When Bush launched his campaign in June, he was the clear frontrunner among Republicans, polling at nearly 18% in a crowded field. Roughly six weeks later Trump had taken a commanding lead with 26% and Bush had dropped to around 12%, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Today Bush is at 8% nationally. Trump stands at 38%.