With the Iowa caucuses in the books, the focus of the political world has shifted to the first-in-the-nation-primary state, New Hampshire. New Hampshire voters, with their contrarian reputation, head to the polls Tuesday. Expect the unexpected.
Here are five things to know about how it all works:
1. Voting is straightforward
Kudos to those of you who mastered the complex caucus system that Iowa uses to pick its presidential nominees. But now you can breathe a sigh of relief. In New Hampshire, it is much more straightforward. Anonymous ballots are cast at regular voting locations.
The election is also run by the New Hampshire secretary of state’s office and not by the individual political parties. That means an actual vote that’s able to be recounted, if necessary (though there are complicated rules for that. Check in with us if that becomes relevant).
2. Midnight voting — and lots of varied poll-close times
That doesn’t mean the primary isn’t without its quirks. One of those quirks is midnight voting — at least in some places. Each town in New Hampshire sets its own time for when the polls open. Three tiny towns — Dixville Notch, Hart’s Location and Millsfield — choose to cast their votes just after midnight Tuesday morning.
3. It’s really easy to get on the ballot
New Hampshire is a small state — both geographically and population-wise. And its politics have a very local feel, unlike in big states such as, say, California, Texas or Florida. Voters love town halls so they can kick the tires and look under the hoods of candidates. They ask probing, sometimes blunt questions at town halls, and they want to look a candidate in the eye. Out of this culture comes the ease by which candidates can get on the ballot. All it takes is $1,000; or, if that’s too much, just 100 signatures will do. That means on this year’s presidential ballot, there will be 58 (yes, 58!) people — 30 on the Republican side and 28 for the Democrats.
4. A state known for its high voter participation and independent streak
New Hampshire voters are used to voting. Their governors have the shortest terms in the country, elected every two years. Because of that, in part, New Hampshire has had among the highest primary voter turnout rates in the country. In 2012, for example, 31.1 percent of all eligible voters showed up to the polls despite the Democratic side not being competitive. It is expected to soar much higher than that this year with both sides being competitive. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner is predicting a record-breaking turnout in 2016 of 550,000 votes cast, or 63 percent of all registered voters. (That would break the total votes-cast record in the state of 527,349.)
Gardner also said he thinks more Republicans (about 282,000) will come out to vote, given the historically large field of candidates, than Democrats (about 268,000). For Republicans, that would break the 2012 total turnout primary record in the state of 248,475. It would fall short of the 287,556 Democrats who showed up in 2008.
And a lot of those voters are independents or undeclared — roughly 44 percent. Not surprising for a place whose state motto is “Live Free or Die.” And, unlike in many other states, those independents can vote here in either the Republican or the Democratic primary. That’s important because in an open presidential election, with the kind of interest that has been drummed up by this election on both sides, which way those indies go could sway the outcome.
That might be thought to help someone like Hillary Clinton, who is seen as more centrist than Bernie Sanders, but it’s Sanders who has been winning independents in the state, while Clinton does best with hard-core Democrats.
By the way, if after voting, those independents want to remain undeclared, they have to fill out a form saying so before leaving the voting location. That might be seen as a sneaky way to register voters in most other states, but, see above, New Hampshire is used to this.
5. New Hampshire has had a better track record of picking GOP nominees in recent years
New Hampshire voters like to say they pick presidents while Iowa picks corn. So how true is that? Since 1976, in competitive presidential primaries, New Hampshire has selected 10 eventual nominees (five Democrats, five Republicans). That includes the last two Republicans — Mitt Romney and John McCain. The last Democrat it picked right for the nomination was John Kerry in 2004. That’s only about a Hillary Clinton-Iowa-size win better than New Hampshire’s rival first state.