Winter this year has been warmer and less foggy than usual and these might end up adversely affecting next month’s wheat harvest.
Agriculturalists say that wheat needs cool temperature, dense fog and dew drops to develop grain.
If the current temperature trends continue into February then the production of wheat may face a severe blow, said Rafiqul Islam Mondol, director general of Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI).
According to the met office’s forecasts based on an analysis of the current air flow pattern in the country, chances of any elongated periods of cold wave in January is slim.
“The country may experience a moderate to severe cold wave for a brief period in the middle of January,” said a met official yesterday.
Usually, two to three severe cold waves sweep across the country during the months December and January – the winter months in this part of the world.
December too had been warmer than usual this year with two moderate cold waves. The lowest temperature in December was six degree Celsius in Srimangal, although this upazila under Moulvibazar district usually records a couple of degrees lower temperatures during high winter.
Yesterday, the temperature in Srimangal was 9.6 degrees Celcius; the lowest temperature in Dhaka was 14.8 degrees – both quite a bit higher than usual.
The 5th Assessment report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies erratic behaviour of weather as one of the climate change-induced danger facing Bangladesh which might hamper the country’s food security.
Prof Ainun Nishat, who works on environment and climate change, said the erratic weather pattern is the primary symptom of a changing pattern of the overall climate.
He suggested the government introduces crop varieties that can cope with such erratic behaviours. However, the future is not entirely grim for Bangladesh’s agriculture sector.
State-owned research body BARI has recently developed a wheat variety – BARI 27 – that can be produce grain in comparatively higher temperatures.