As little as a year before Britain votes on whether to leave the European Union, events risk derailing Prime Minister David Cameron’s carefully-laid plan to renegotiate EU membership and keep Britain in.
First Cameron compromised on the referendum question, then Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers defeated him on campaign rules, the government’s first defeat since his unexpectedly strong victory in the May 7 general election.
Now Cameron is struggling to navigate a refugee crisis that is fuelling domestic opposition to British membership, while his refusal to take part in EU asylum plans has irritated the very leaders whose support he needs for his renegotiation. Cameron has pledged to take in 20,000 Syrians, but not from Europe.
The referendum could happen as early as next year, with dates in either June or September seen as likely.
Cameron says that if he gets what he wants from European leaders, he will campaign to keep Britain in a reformed EU, but that if he doesn’t get the concessions he seeks, he would “rule nothing out. He has said he wants reforms to make the EU economy more competitive, better safeguards for national sovereignty, guarantees of fair treatment for countries that do not join the euro zone, and curbs on the welfare rights of migrants from EU countries.
Cameron was forced to change the wording on the referendum ballot from a simple “yes”/”no” answer to the question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”
To phrase the choice more openly, the independent Electoral Commission recommended it be changed to: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” The two possible answers would be: “remain a member of the European Union” and “leave the European Union.”
In the face of a revolt by Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers, Cameron moved to impose stronger limits (Purdah) on the involvement of the government in the campaign.
But the rushed last-minute amendments to the EU Referendum Bill didn’t placate more than 35 Conservative Eurosceptics who voted with the opposition Labour Party and Scottish nationalists to defeat the government on Monday.
In Brussels and London, there remains considerable uncertainty about exactly what Cameron wants and how it can be accommodated without breaching basic principles such as freedom of movement for EU workers and non-discrimination among European citizens.
As Cameron struggles to keep his party together, there are signals that the notoriously volatile British public view of the EU could be shifting again in response to the crisis over a massive influx of refugees into Europe, with one poll showing a narrow majority in favour of leaving.
The Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday newspaper found 51% of respondents wanted out, while 49% were in favour of remaining, excluding undecided voters.