A new El Niño event has emerged in the Pacific Ocean, prompting warnings from climate scientists that the world could be heading toward one of the most powerful and disruptive climate episodes ever recorded.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently confirmed the development of El Niño conditions, while international climate models indicate that sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific could rise to levels exceeding those observed during previous major El Niño events.
Scientists say the phenomenon, combined with ongoing global warming, could trigger severe heatwaves, prolonged droughts, devastating floods, wildfires and food shortages across multiple regions of the world over the next two years.
Experts are particularly concerned that the event could contribute to record-breaking global temperatures in 2027, further intensifying the climate crisis.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It forms part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which influences weather systems around the globe.
The phenomenon was first identified centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed declining fish populations around Christmas and named it "El Niño," meaning "the Christ Child" in Spanish.
Today, El Niño is recognized as one of the most influential drivers of global climate variability, capable of altering rainfall patterns, temperatures and storm activity far beyond the Pacific region.
According to climate scientists, strong El Niño events occur when ocean temperatures rise more than 2°C above average. Several forecasting models suggest temperatures could exceed 2.5°C and potentially approach 3°C during the current cycle, raising concerns that it could rival or surpass some of the strongest events in recorded history.
Historically, major El Niño events have been associated with significant humanitarian and economic losses.
The 1997-98 El Niño, considered one of the strongest on record, caused widespread droughts, floods and crop failures across several continents. Researchers estimate that the event resulted in billions of dollars in economic damage and contributed to thousands of deaths worldwide.
Similar conditions were observed during the 2015-16 El Niño, which helped make 2016 the warmest year on record at the time.
Scientists note that the world is now significantly warmer than it was during previous El Niño events. According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded globally, with average temperatures approximately 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels.
Climate experts warn that a strong El Niño occurring on top of human-driven climate change could push global temperatures to unprecedented levels.
"El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but its impacts are becoming more severe in a warming world," climate researchers have repeatedly emphasized.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that southern Africa, the Sahel region, Central America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia could face heightened risks of drought and agricultural disruption.
During the 2023-24 El Niño, southern Africa experienced one of its worst droughts in more than a century, causing significant crop losses and threatening food security for millions.
FAO has also warned that Somalia could continue facing drought conditions before experiencing heavy rainfall later in the year, increasing the risk of flash floods.
Experts say such weather extremes can have cascading effects on global food systems, especially as fertilizer supply chains remain vulnerable due to geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
Countries already struggling with conflict, economic instability or food insecurity—including Sudan, South Sudan, Chad, Somalia, Haiti and Venezuela—could face worsening humanitarian conditions if El Niño intensifies.
Although Bangladesh is located far from the Pacific Ocean, El Niño has historically influenced weather patterns across South Asia.
Meteorologists say strong El Niño years are often associated with higher temperatures, irregular rainfall and an increased risk of drought in parts of Bangladesh.
The country has already experienced increasingly intense heatwaves in recent years. In 2024, temperatures exceeded 42°C in several districts, disrupting daily life, agriculture and public health services.
Climate experts warn that another strong El Niño could further increase heat stress, place pressure on water resources and affect agricultural production.
Bangladesh's agriculture sector remains highly vulnerable to climate variability. Rice production, which is central to the country's food security, depends heavily on predictable rainfall and temperature patterns.
Reduced rainfall during the monsoon season or prolonged dry spells could affect crop yields, while extreme heat may impact both agriculture and livestock production.
Scientists emphasize that El Niño itself is not caused by climate change. However, global warming can amplify its impacts.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has repeatedly warned that rising global temperatures are increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Bangladesh, despite contributing less than 0.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate-related disasters, including floods, cyclones, river erosion, salinity intrusion and heatwaves.
According to the World Bank, climate change could significantly affect agricultural productivity, water security and livelihoods across the country in the coming decades if adaptation measures are not strengthened.
Climate specialists say governments and communities must strengthen preparedness efforts as forecasts continue to evolve.
Recommended measures include expanding climate-resilient agriculture, improving water management systems, strengthening early-warning services and increasing investments in climate adaptation.
Roufa Khanum, assistant director – Operations at the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research (C3ER) of BRAC University said: "A stronger El Niño combined with ongoing climate change could intensify heatwaves, agricultural risks and water-management challenges in Bangladesh, highlighting the urgent need for climate adaptation and preparedness."
While forecasts remain subject to change, scientists agree that the emergence of a potentially powerful El Niño serves as another reminder of how increasingly interconnected climate risks are becoming in a warming world.
If current projections hold, the coming months could test the resilience of countries already struggling with the growing impacts of climate change—including Bangladesh.