Bangladesh's GDP estimates were overstated by 0.8 to 1.13 percentage points, particularly since fiscal year 2014-15, due to alleged manipulation of data across seven economic sectors under the previous government, Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said on Saturday.
Speaking at a seminar on the peer review of a draft forensic audit report at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Titumir said the review identified inconsistencies in 22 industrial subsectors, particularly where estimates relied on administrative and secondary data rather than field surveys.
He alleged that economic statistics had been manipulated to present an exaggerated picture of growth and promote a political development narrative.
The review found discrepancies in cement production and value addition, as well as unusual fluctuations in petroleum-sector data. It also identified inconsistencies among export figures maintained by the Export Promotion Bureau, Customs and Bangladesh Bank.
Titumir said the government had decided to use actual Bangladesh Bank data for export-related calculations to address these discrepancies. He added that the review excluded exceptional statistical outliers, including the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The adviser said the government was working to establish a politically neutral statistical system whose credibility would not change with a change of administration.
Measures include introducing computer-assisted personal interviews to improve field-level data collection, verifying GDP estimates against electricity and gas consumption, and improving industrial-sector sampling methods.
The government is also considering quarterly GDP estimates, an income-based approach to national accounting and an open-data policy to give researchers and the public wider access to official statistics.
Bangladesh Economic Association Convener Prof Mahbub Ullah stressed the need for stronger field-level data collection, particularly in agriculture and the informal economy, to improve the accuracy of national accounts. He also called for scientifically representative samples and greater adherence to the UN System of National Accounts.
The seminar was attended by economists, statisticians and researchers, with keynote papers presented by Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Director General Dr A K Enamul Haque and Dhaka University Professor Dr Atonu Rabbani.