Gas supply has begun recovering with the arrival of fresh LNG cargoes, easing some of the severe shortages that disrupted power generation and industrial production across Bangladesh in recent weeks.
But the relief masks a much bigger problem: the country still faces a daily gas deficit of around 1.3 billion cubic feet, with no quick solution in sight.
Government projections suggest it could take at least two years before additional LNG infrastructure comes online, while declining domestic production and limited pipeline capacity mean even uninterrupted imports cannot fully bridge the gap.
The crisis, therefore, is shifting from an immediate question of when gas supply will improve to a more difficult one: when will Bangladesh actually have enough gas?
The country's gas demand currently stands at around 4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).
Even under normal conditions, however, supply can reach only around 2.6-2.7bcfd, roughly 1bcfd from imported LNG and another 1.6bcfd from domestic fields.
That leaves a structural shortfall of around 1.3bcfd even when the system is functioning normally.
The fragility of that system became evident after a fire at Excelerate Energy's LNG terminal in Moheshkhali on July 21.
The disruption reduced LNG supply, hitting power plants and industries and contributing to prolonged load-shedding and severe gas shortages.
Although the terminal was repaired, a subsequent shortage of LNG cargoes again constrained supply.
The situation has now improved.
LNG supply, which stood at around 580 million cubic feet on Saturday afternoon, rose to approximately 686 million cubic feet following the arrival of a new cargo.
Total gas supply has consequently climbed to around 2.3bcf per day.
But that still leaves the country about 1.7bcf short of estimated demand.
At least two years for new capacity
The government itself has warned consumers and industries not to expect a rapid end to the crisis.
Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said on August 16 that the gas and electricity problems could not be permanently resolved within six months or a year.
“It will take at least two years,” he said, noting that constructing another floating LNG terminal could itself require around one and a half to two years.
The government is moving ahead with a third LNG terminal at Moheshkhali.
Chinese company CNEC has been selected for the project, but the contract has yet to be signed. The company has proposed completing construction within 22 months after signing.
Even more LNG terminals, however, would not automatically solve the problem.
Existing pipeline capacity from Moheshkhali towards Chittagong also constrains how much additional imported gas can be transported, meaning further terminals would require additional transmission infrastructure.
Domestic gas adds to uncertainty
At the same time, domestic production continues to decline.
Bangladesh's gas fields have a stated daily production capacity of around 2.75bcf, but production on August 20-21 stood at only around 1.63bcf, about 59% of capacity.
Bibiyana, the country's largest producing gas field, alone is producing around 450 million cubic feet less per day than three years ago.
Power and Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku has blamed years of inadequate exploration for increasing dependence on imports, saying the country would have been in a stronger position had exploration and LNG infrastructure been expanded earlier.
The government plans more FSRUs by 2029 alongside intensified domestic exploration.
Exploration offers hope, but not quickly
Experts say Bangladesh cannot simply import its way out of the shortage.
Additional LNG terminals require not only infrastructure but also billions of dollars in recurring fuel imports.
Energy expert Professor M Shamsul Alam said major measures being undertaken now could take two to seven years to produce significant results.
He believes, however, that drilling five to six exploration wells annually and discovering commercially viable reserves could substantially reduce the shortage within five years.
Offshore exploration offers another possibility, but any major discovery there could take considerably longer to reach the national grid.
For now, therefore, fresh LNG cargoes can ease the immediate pain but cannot end the crisis.