As Bangladesh and India intensify negotiations to renew the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty before it expires on December 11, 2026, Bangladesh is seeking to restore a guarantee clause to ensure predictable dry-season water flows from one of South Asia's most important transboundary rivers.
While Bangladesh has indicated that the existing water-sharing formula remains broadly acceptable, officials say reinstating a legally backed guarantee mechanism—similar to the provision contained in the 1977 Ganges Agreement—has become a key objective of the ongoing negotiations.
For Bangladesh, the Ganges is more than a transboundary river. Its dry-season flows sustain agriculture, freshwater fisheries, navigation, drinking water supplies, and the ecological balance of the country's southwest, where declining river discharge has accelerated salinity intrusion and affected livelihoods.
The 1977 agreement, signed during the presidency of Ziaur Rahman, included a guarantee mechanism designed to ensure Bangladesh received a minimum share of water during exceptionally low-flow periods.
That safeguard was removed from the temporary agreements signed in 1982 and 1985 and was not included in the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, which is approaching the end of its 30-year term.
Water Resources Minister Shahid Uddin Chowdhury Annie recently said Bangladesh remains hopeful of restoring the guarantee provision.
He said: "If we can successfully reintroduce the guarantee clause, we will be able to better protect Bangladesh's national interests."
Officials expect negotiations to produce a draft agreement by September or October, leaving sufficient time before the treaty expires.
Although the current treaty allocates dry-season water using measurements taken at the Farakka Barrage in India's West Bengal, specialists increasingly argue that the approach no longer reflects changing conditions across the basin.
Climate change, rising upstream withdrawals, changing rainfall patterns, and environmental degradation have altered river dynamics across South Asia, making historical allocation formulas increasingly difficult to sustain.
Many experts believe the renewed treaty should therefore expand beyond volumetric water allocation to include:
- Environmental flow requirements
- Water quality monitoring
- Sediment management
- Biodiversity conservation
- Joint hydrological data sharing
- Climate adaptation planning
Ahmed Ishtiaque Amin Chowdhury, associate professor at the Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet), said the treaty renewal offers an opportunity to modernize transboundary river governance.
He said: "While the 1996 treaty marked a historic milestone in Bangladesh-India cooperation, changing realities—including climate change, increasing water demand and environmental degradation—require a renewed and forward-looking framework."
According to him, future negotiations should prioritize equitable water allocation, environmental flow protection, transparent scientific data sharing, and long-term water security.
He added: "Water can become a source of cooperation rather than conflict. A science-based, climate-resilient and mutually beneficial agreement would strengthen regional trust while ensuring the sustainable future of the Ganges basin and its people."
Md Sirajul Islam, professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at North South University, said future cooperation must extend beyond seasonal water distribution.
He said: "The renewed treaty should prioritize environmental flows, water quality and climate resilience alongside water allocation. Scientific collaboration and joint basin management can provide South Asia with a stronger model for sustainable transboundary river governance."
His assessment reflects a broader consensus among regional researchers that future river diplomacy should increasingly be guided by science rather than historical agreements alone.
Research by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) has consistently highlighted the importance of integrated river basin management, transparent cross-border data sharing, and coordinated climate adaptation across South Asia.
The institute says glacier retreat in the Himalayas, increasingly erratic monsoon rainfall, and prolonged droughts are altering river flows across the region, making collaborative water governance increasingly important.
Researchers also argue that future discussions should gradually evolve toward a basin-wide approach involving Nepal, where several major tributaries of the Ganges originate. They say such an approach could improve flood forecasting, dry-season flow management, and long-term regional water security.
Fariha Aumi, chair of the youth-led organization Brighters, said communities most affected by changing river systems must have a stronger voice in future agreements.
She said: "Transboundary rivers are not only about water allocation; they are about people, ecosystems and climate justice. Communities living along river basins are already experiencing changing water flows, salinity intrusion and growing climate risks."
She added: "Any renewed agreement must ensure equitable water sharing, protect ecosystems and create meaningful space for youth and frontline communities in shaping the future of our rivers and livelihoods."
Sk Mashrur Ishrak, international affairs director of Volunteer for Environment – Youth for Climate Justice, said: "A climate-resilient Ganges treaty should guarantee fair dry-season flows, strengthen scientific cooperation and protect vulnerable communities throughout the basin."
The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty was signed in 1996 by then Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and then Indian prime minister H D Deve Gowda, establishing a 30-year framework for sharing dry-season water at the Farakka Barrage.
As negotiations enter their final phase, analysts say the discussions represent more than the renewal of a bilateral agreement.
They argue that the treaty offers Bangladesh and India an opportunity to redefine transboundary water governance as climate change reshapes river systems across South Asia. A renewed agreement rooted in science, transparency, and shared ecological responsibility, they say, could serve as a model for regional cooperation while strengthening water security, protecting ecosystems, and improving resilience for millions who depend on the Ganges basin.