As Bangladesh approaches its upcoming national elections amid escalating political tension, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is boycotting elections in a bid to extract concessions from the government.
Rampant inflation adds to citizens’ challenges, and both the BNP and the ruling Awami League are conducting rallies to mobilize supporters. However, a lack of available polling data obscures the electoral landscape.
The International Republican Institute (IRI) conducted a survey shedding light on the country’s dynamics. While citizens express pessimism about the economy and elections, the government’s infrastructure and development policies have buoyed the prime minister’s support.
The opposition’s popularity is growing, but skepticism surrounds their boycott strategy. Amidst these dynamics, the 2024 election holds crucial implications for Bangladesh’s democracy
1. Driven by inflation, Bangladeshis are deeply pessimistic about the direction of the country and the economy
2. The job approval rating for the opposition has risen dramatically since our last survey in Sept 2019
3. But, Sheikh Hasina remains popular and the AL government is positively rated across a range of issues
4. On the most contentious questions of the day – the caretaker government and the BNP’s boycott – Bangladeshis are split
5. But a majority want the opposition to participate in the election even if there is no caretaker system
The IRI is an American nonprofit organization funded and supported by the United States federal government. Most of its board is drawn from the Republican Party.
The survey results come ahead of the national elections to be held by January next year. The ruling Awami League and the BNP are at loggerheads over the election-time government. The Awami League says it will follow the constitution while the oppositions demand an election-time interim government.
The survey was conducted on behalf of IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research under the supervision of Redstone Scientific between March 1 and April 6.
Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample through in-person, in-home interviews. The sample consists of 5,000 respondents aged 18 and older and is representative of voting-age adults nationally. The sample was distributed into 500 primary sampling units (PSU) from all 64 districts of all eight divisions. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 1.4% for the full sample, and the response rate was 47%.
Geoffrey Macdonald is a senior advisor at the International Republican Institute and a visiting expert on South Asia at the United States Institute of Peace.