Dhaka-4: Will AL leave the seat for JaPa again?

Awami League leaders and activists are still uncertain as to whether the ruling party will refrain from nominating a candidate for the Dhaka-4 constituency (Kadamtali-Shyampur) at the upcoming general election as it did twice previously.

Jatiya Party (JaPa-Ershad) Co-Chairman and industrialist Sayed Abu Hossain Babla came out victorious in the elections in 2014 and 2018 as his party had reached a consensus with the AL over seat-sharing. Earlier, Babla was elected from the seat (undivided) in 1988 and 1986.

The number of voters in the 11th parliamentary election in 2018 was 245,813 and the voter turnout was 63.5%—a sharp rise from 14.2% in 2014. 

In 2018, Babla got 106,959 votes (68.2%) and defeated the BNP's three-time lawmaker Salah Uddin Ahmed, who bagged 33,117 votes (21.1%). Islami Andolan Bangladesh's Syed Mohammad Mosaddek Billah got 12,430 votes (7.9%).

This time, the JaPa leadership has yet to confirm whether it will forge any alliance or understanding with the ruling party. The decision may depend on the ongoing anti-government movement by the opposition BNP and other parties and the government's stance on the 12th parliamentary election.

Sayed Abu Hossain Babla

Even though some AL leaders are disgruntled over the party's “seat-sharing strategy”, Babla says he has been working for all the voters in the area to support the vision of development as envisaged by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Local AL leaders and supporters are in a fix on whether the party will nominate previous MP Sanjida Khanam this time. 

Recently, Sheikh Hasina announced that an electoral alliance will be formed before the election while keeping the 14-party alliance intact. 

The JaPa contested the last two elections independently but agreed upon sharing seats. It became the opposition party in parliament after the 11th general election.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which rejected the election results in 2018 and boycotted the polls in 2014, has not announced any candidate for the seat. The party may pick a strong candidate this time to break the winning streak of the JaPa leader.

Considered Old Dhaka's busiest industrial zone, the constituency comprises Dhaka South City Corporation wards 53, 58 and 59 (Jurain, Alombagh, Nama Shyampur, Kadamtali, Merajnagar, and Mohammadbagh) areas.

The government has spent around Tk2,200 crore over the last nine years on the development of roads and infrastructures and to ease people suffering from waterlogging.

MP Babla told Dhaka Tribune that he has taken various steps to contest the next election, including the formation of 72 centre committees and the selection of polling agents.

He hopes to win the election no matter whether the party contests independently or under any alliance. 

Sanjida Khanam

Dhaka Tribune notes a shifting political landscape in Dhaka-4 with the Awami League, the BNP and JaPa winning the seat several times since 1973.

This exhaustive analysis depicts the 11 parliamentary election outcomes in the last 50 years to identify patterns and trends in the electoral landscape of the constituency ahead of the twelfth national election.

Previous polls

In 2014, Babla defeated independent candidate Dr Awlad Hossain by a margin of around 3,000 votes. AL leader Awlad contested the election despite not getting the nomination from the party. He was later expelled for acting against the party's decision.

Before the ninth parliamentary election in 2008, the Election Commission reconfigured the boundaries of the constituency based on the latest census.

The AL's Sanjida Khanam won the election that year by securing 97,828 votes (60.6%) against the BNP's Abdul Hai who got 52,701 votes (32.7%). The voter turnout was 80%.

In 2001, nearly 60% of voters cast their votes. BNP candidate Salah Uddin won the election, securing 151,368 votes (52%) while his nearest rival, the AL's Habibur Rahman Mollah, got 123,002 votes (42.3%). JaPa leader Babla became third in the race with 15,413 votes (5.3%).

Habibur Rahman was also elected MP from the Dhaka-5 constituency in 2008, 2024 and 2018. He died on May 6, 2020.

In the election of February 15, 1996, Salah Uddin was reelected uncontested from Dhaka-4, but in June, he got 37.3% votes and lost to the AL's Habibur Rahman (47.1%).

BNP leader Salah Uddin also won the seat in 1991 with 47.9% votes against the Communist Party of Bangladesh's Saifuddin Ahmed Manik who got 36.1%. 

JaPa candidate Babla was elected for two consecutive terms from the constituency (now Dhaka-4 and 5) in 1986 and 1988. Earlier, the BNP's Anwar Uddin Shikdar won the seat in 1979 and the AL's Mir Abul Khayer in the first general election of 1973.