Cyclones generated during the warmest month of May can be very strong. There is a threat of such a cyclone named Mocha in the Bay of Bengal.
So far, no one can say with absolute certainty that the deep depression, which is located about 1,600km from the coast of Bangladesh, will turn into a cyclone and hit Bangladesh.
However, meteorologists have said that the model of the cyclone seems to be moving towards Bangladesh.
Mocha may become a cyclonic storm by Wednesday. Considering the possible course of the storm, as the Meteorological Department sees it, it is feared that the storm may make landfall through Cox's Bazar, Teknaf coast of Bangladesh.
The name
The deep depression will intensify into a cyclone. If it turns into a cyclone, this time the name of the storm will be “Mocha”.
Incidentally, 13 countries of the world decide the names of the cyclones created in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
Since 2000, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Oman, members of the World Meteorological Organization, have been naming cyclones.
According to the World Meteorological Organization/United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Yemen has christened the cyclone up ahead.
The cyclone is named after the port of Mocha in Yemen, which is famous for its coffee.
The path
Meteorologist Abul Kalam Mallick said that earlier on Wednesday morning, the deep depression was located at 1,550km south of Chittagong sea port, 1,470km south of Cox's Bazar sea port, 1,550km south-east of Mongla sea port, and 1,505km south-south-east of Payra sea port.
It is likely to intensify further in the north-northwest direction till Thursday and then change direction and gradually move north-northeast, the Meteorological Department said.
The Indian Meteorological Department said that the deep depression is likely to develop into a cyclone on Wednesday. It may become a full-blown cyclone on Thursday.
The cyclone will then move north and northwest initially on Thursday. Then it may gradually change its direction and move north-northeast towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.
When may it hit?
Mostafa Kamal Palash, PhD researcher on Meteorology and Climate at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada, said that there is a strong fear of this cyclone hitting the coast of Bangladesh between May 13-16.
Reviewing the weather forecast models of different countries of the world, he said, the low pressure may turn into a deep depression by Wednesday, which has already happened and indicates the possibility of becoming a full-blown cyclone on Thursday. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is also reporting the same fear.
Strength and impact
Meteorologist Omar Farooq said that the maximum wind speed of this cyclone when it hits the coast is 160-200km. In addition to heavy rains with gale force winds, the coastal districts of Chittagong division face the threat of being inundated by high tides of 7-10 feet.
Why so strong?
According to meteorologists, the sun is directly above the Bay of Bengal during this period from late April to May. The air rises as it gets heated by the sunlight.
Sea surface water adds latent heat to the atmosphere. The longer this happens, the more energy is stored.
As a result, cyclones are stronger in this season. Besides, since there has been no cyclone yet this year, experts also have said that the upcoming cyclone could be very strong.