In late November, India mobilized its troops along Paksitan's eastern and western borders to pile pressure on the military junta to release Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and stop the influx of Bangladeshis fleeing a genocide.
In the east, India was providing the Mukti Bahini guerrillas with training and helping them with arms until December 3. On that day, the Pakistan Air Force launched strikes on 11 airfields in north-western India, known as “Operation Chengiz Khan”. India retaliated with air strikes on both fronts.
Earlier, the US imposed military sanctions on West Pakistan on November 8. while General Yahya Khan declared a state of emergency on November 23.
On December 1, US President Richard Nixon's assistant for national security affairs Henry Kissinger headed a high-profile Washington Special Actions Group Meeting, held in the White House Situation Room.
Admiral Thomas H Moorer, the seventh chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), who attended the meeting, said that Pakistan could hold out for two to three weeks. “India is putting pressure on the border and forcing the Paks to defend there. This leaves the guerrillas free in the interior of the country.
“The Pakistanis are getting low on artillery ammo and are attempting to replenish their forces – 4,000 replacements are en route. The Paks are just running out of steam. The loss of Jessore could be seriously crippling,” he said when Kissinger sought a specific scenario for the next step in a cut-off of military assistance.
Lt Gen Robert E Cushman of the CIA said: “One can speculate that the Indians may be trying to take Jessore and set it up as the capital of Bangla Desh.”
Cushman's briefing notes focused on the guerrilla offensive in East Pakistan that was gaining momentum. The border between India and West Pakistan remained quiet, but Pakistani officers indicated that in the event of war, Pakistan's posture in the west would be offensive, not defensive.
Cushman said: “The Indians have superiority in everything and will win. The Paks have the bulk of their armor and most of their divisions there, but they won't prevail.”
Adm Moorer said Pakistan would poop out on logistics within 30 days. “The Indians have superiority by four-to-one.”
He cited some reports that China had promised armour to Pakistan.
Cushman replied: “There are also reports that the guerrillas are mining the approaches to the ports and that Indian sailors in civilian clothes are operating gunboats at night against East Pakistan.”
Adm Moorer added that the army in East Pakistan was beginning to ration their ammunition – ten rounds per tube unless they had special permission. “They're beginning to feel the squeeze,” he added.
Kissinger was tense. “Some of the papers are saying we're not doing our arithmetic-that we're losing 500 million Indians for 150 million Pakistanis. I don't know what we're losing in India and, in any event, that's not the purpose of our policy.
“If there is a chance of getting this thing stopped, we should move confidently and not be too apologetic. In matters of refugee and humanitarian relief, we have done more than all the other countries put together. We should respond to questions that way and stick to it,” he told the meeting.
It was agreed at the meeting that the State Department would prepare a scenario for the next step in a cut-off of military assistance, and the US government would delay the aid money and the next tranche of the development loan money by administrative means.
It was also decided that US officials would explore with the Pakistan UN Representative the pros and cons of an approach to the UN, but “will not urge them in either direction”.