India’s coronavirus cases may peak by May 7, according to a mathematical model of a team of scientists advising the government, a few days earlier than a previous estimate as the virus has spread faster than expected.
“If you take the nation as a whole, our prediction is that we may see a decline coming by the end of this week, which is by about May 7,” M Vidyasagar, head of a government-appointed group of scientists modelling the trajectory of infections, said in an interview with India Today TV.
“Cases should start declining, but different states will peak at different times. The nationwide and cumulative total is at the peak now or is very, very close to it,” he added.
The world's second-most populous country has reported more than 300,000 new infections daily for fourteen consecutive days, hitting another global record of 402,110 on Friday.
The surge has led to a public health crisis in India, forcing the government to seek oxygen, medicines and other essentials from countries around the world.
The group previously told senior government officials in a presentation on April 2 that cases would peak by May 10, said Vidyasagar.
“We said (at that presentation) that it was not a matter of putting up some structures that would come up in July or August, because by then the wave will have ended,” he told Reuters.
“Try to figure out how we're going to fight the fight for the next four to six weeks, that was the message. Don’t waste a lot of time putting up long-term solutions because your problem is right now.”
India's first wave of the pandemic peaked in mid-September with 97,894 cases. The country is now reporting more than three times as many infections daily, taking the total number of cases to 20.6 million with 226,188 deaths.
The real number of infections is believed to be 50 times more, said Vidyasagar, as many people who contract the disease show no symptoms.
