Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak is facing a fight for his political survival when the country goes to the polls on May 9, after his strong lead over rival Dr Mahathir Mohamad narrowed sharply, popular British newspaper The Guardian reported.
Najib, who has been in power since 2009, was initially thought to be guaranteed an easy win in Wednesday’s elections. But in the past few weeks the tide has turned against him, even in the rural Malay heartlands that have long been strongholds for the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (BN).
Many are now predicting that the government will once again lose the popular vote, though thanks to recent gerrymandering and the redrawing of electoral boundaries it will still be able to hold on to power.
Figures within Umno, Najib’s party in the ruling coalition, say that if Najib wins fewer than 130 seats out of a total of 222 (BN currently holds 133), then he is likely to face a post-election leadership challenge.
Most of the election narrative has been controlled by the opposition, led by former prime minister Mahathir, who led the country between 1981 and 2003, and at 92 years old has returned to topple Najib, his former protege. Mahathir was once head of Umno himself but has switched sides in this election to run against Najib.
Najib has also faced growing criticism from within his own party. Last week Umno sacked two senior leaders and suspended another – all long-time loyalists of Mahathir – for speaking against Najib and attending opposition events.
Mahathir factor
“I think there’s definitely momentum for change happening across the country,” said Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia expert from John Cabot University. “Najib walked into this election very strong and it was his election to lose. But so far in the campaign he has been losing the narrative and as a result there has been a lot of movement away from him.”
While opposition rallies have been packed out, and the “Mahathir factor” has drawn a lot of media attention towards the opposition, the election will be decided by a large silent majority, many of whom live in remote rural areas of Malaysia and traditionally have voted for BN.
Among rural Malay farmers in states such as Sabah and Sarawak – which account for 60% of Malaysia’s land mass – Najib demands huge loyalty for the generous subsidies given out, and issues such as the 1MDB corruption scandal do not factor in their voting choices.
For Najib to lose the election it would require a huge swing away from him in these areas, which is still unlikely.
In a statement released on Monday, Najib took a final dig at the opposition “whose only reason for coming together is to selfishly gain power for themselves.”
“Do not be fooled either by the tears and the ridiculous allegations of sabotage or even assassination,” Najib said of Mahathir. “A former dictator, as he has called himself, does not change. He has apologised sincerely for nothing. The truth is he trying to use his former allies, just as they are trying to use him. Their hypocrisy is breathtaking.”
Instead the election will be overseen by observers from a selection of countries with questionable democratic credentials, including Indonesia, Thailand, the Maldives, Timor-Leste, Azerbaijan, Cambodia and Kyrgyzstan. Only Timor-Leste is considered a free democracy by Freedom House, while Thailand is run by an unelected military government, and Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan are classified as authoritarian regimes.
